STRATEGIC WARNING THRESHOLD CROSSED
Washington DC 24 APL 2023
The Lights are Going Out (We Must Arm) Speech, Winston Churchill, October 16, 1938
Australia has just announced that it has crossed its strategic warning threshold, and that accordingly, it is now moving to a pre-war footing. The rise of China and decline of the US are the key triggers. Australia will impose a layered anti-access and area denial (A2AD) shield to cover its approaches. A significantly enhanced force will be postured in the north and structured for major high intensity, long range, combat operations matching the challenges of the “missile age”.
The entire country will adopt a resilience posture “to withstand, endure and recover from disruption… [to] makes Australia a harder target and less susceptible to coercion.” The ‘bare-bases’ of the remote north and west, will be turned into a constellation of redundantly supplied, hardened operational centers, from which long range strike capabilities will project deep into Australia’s “immediate region, encompassing the north-eastern Indian Ocean through maritime Southeast Asia into the Pacific” in order to impose unacceptable risks on China.
Australian defense industry has been directed by government to rapidly acquire and develop the capability to manufacture advanced long range strike missiles and related advanced explosive ordinance, and to build realistic war stocks assuming supply lines will be cut in a conflict. International sales will plug Australia into the US global weapons supply chain as a valued vendor.
The actions Australia announced today eclipse any defense policy change since 1939. They are getting ready to go to war, alone if necessary. It is absolutely the right judgement at the right time according to long standing defense policy that held such actions needed to be taken once a major war was foreseeable under a 10 year horizon.
Perspective Matters
Australia has made this judgment based on three factors, China’s aggressiveness, America’s future unreliability as an active participant in war to protect Australia, and the current posture and structure of the force to deter China. It is a mark of the seriousness of this decisive policy shift that the Australians don’t mince words on any of these counts:
On China:
"China’s military build-up is now the largest and most ambitious of any country since the end of the Second World War... China threatens the global rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific in a way that adversely impacts Australia’s national interests"
On the US:
"the United States, is no longer the unipolar leader of the Indo-Pacific. Australia needs to develop the capability to unilaterally deter any state from offensive military action against Australian forces or territory.
On the current force
“The ADF must be able to hold an adversary at risk further from our shores. ADF as currently constituted and equipped is not fully fit for purpose. Australia does not have effective defence capabilities relative to higher threat levels.”
Australia is not abandoning the US, they want to enhance cooperation, but they are signally that they know the can no longer rely on the US for active participation in a military crisis. This should cause shock waves in Washington, but likely will go unnoticed, which proves the new Australian position is realistic and clear-eyed.
Recall also that Japan announced a transformation to its posture and capabilities just weeks ago, and as Thirdoffset has noted, regional alliances are rapidly shifting - all of which should be ringing alarm bells. Yet AUKUS is under challenge from at least two sources. First, ITAR - talking about sharing very high end technology and the practical realization of the same are two very different things. The new Australian policy touches on this as an “ambition” of the AUKUS partners, diplomatic language that gives the Australian government a future explanation in the event the US does not take the concrete action it has promised. Second, American First and related political insecurity.
From “Defense of Australia” to “National Defense”
It really is not just wording. The meaning is a shift from military defense of the perimeter to the Singaporean concept of the whole nation having a role in defense. This is where resilience comes in and it’s a very smart approach.
Resilience requires the ability to withstand, endure and recover from disruption. Resilience makes Australia a harder target and less susceptible to coercion. Critical requirements include:
an informed public;
national unity and cohesion;
democratic assuredness;
robust cyber security, data networks and space capabilities;
supply chain diversity;
economic security;
environmental security;
fuel and energy security;
enhanced military preparedness;
advanced munitions manufacturing (especially in long-range guided weapons);
robust national logistics; and
a national industrial base with a capacity to scale.1
Critical military capability upgrades identified include
undersea warfare capabilities (crewed and uncrewed) optimised for persistent, long-range sub-surface intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and strike;
an enhanced integrated targeting capability;
an enhanced long-range strike capability in all domains;
a fully enabled, integrated amphibious-capable combined-arms land system;
enhanced, all-domain, maritime capabilities for sea denial operations and localised sea control;
a networked expeditionary air operations capability;
an enhanced, all-domain, integrated air and missile defence capability;
a joint, expeditionary theatre logistics system with strategic depth and mobility;
a theatre command and control framework that enables an enhanced Integrated Force; and
a developed network of northern bases to provide a platform for logistics support, denial and deterrence.
NAVY
US Vice Admiral William H Hilarides, USN, will conduct "an independent analysis of Navy's surface combatant fleet capability” in view of the SSN acquisition, to be delivered to government by Q3 2023 in order to assess that the “shape, size and scope of the Navy’s surface combatant fleet is appropriate for the levels of risk we now face.”
The report notes the Navy wants to enhanced the lethality surface combatant fleet, and pursue a strategy of “a larger number of smaller surface vessels”.
This part of the report is the weakest especially in light of the need for advanced long range missiles.
Army
As a priority it must be able to provide:
a littoral manoeuvre capability by sea, land and air;
long-range fires, including land-based maritime strike;
air and missile defence; and
close-combat capabilities, including a single armoured combined-arms brigade, able to meet the most demanding land challenges in our region.
Defence must rapidly accelerate and expand Army’s littoral manoeuvre vessels (medium and heavy landing craft) and long-range fires (land-based maritime strike) programs. This will require Army to re-posture key capabilities.
HIMARS - 20 already ordered, many more needed
The Precision Strike Missile - air, land and sea.
Army’s combat brigades must be re-roled and select capabilities postured in northern Australia. Enhanced domestic security and response Army Reserve brigades will be required to provide area security to the northern base network and other critical infrastructure, as well as providing an expansion base and follow-on forces.
RAAF
Air Force must be able to maintain:
a network of northern air bases with appropriate hardening and dispersal;
crewed and autonomous systems capable of air defence;
strike capability (maritime and land);
intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance;
anti-submarine warfare;
command and control for integrated air and missile defence;
air-to-air refuelling; and
heavy and medium air mobility.
B-21 - after extensive consultation the B21 will not be pursued by the RAAF - no reason why was given.
Finally, the report noted “a new, more focused approach to defence planning based on net assessment” which is a very long time coming and most welcome development.
Implications for the US
Despite the Australians effectively writing the US off, other than as a supplier (which ITAR makes questionable), counter-intuitively Australia just made itself much more valuable to the United States.
It has taken a vitally important step of announcing its own A2AD Shield to counter China’s - something Thirdoffset has been arguing for the US to do for years. We are only just starting to do it for ourselves on Guam! Imagine the Philippines and Indonesia announcing they were adopting the same approach. The entire strategy for the region would change overnight.
Australia is hardening its archipelago of forward bases - again something we can seriously benefit from. The US desperately needs runways, fuel, logistics and weapons in more locations in the region. The USAFs valuable ACE concept is only as good as the support of deep bases outside of Chinas A2AD - so that excludes Japan and Guam.
Australia is aligning its forces and particularly the army with the USMC force Design 2030 concept and capabilities. It has made rapidly accelerating and expanding “Army’s littoral manoeuvre vessels (medium and heavy landing craft) and long-range fires (land-based maritime strike) programs” a top priority. These are gaps that plague the Corps and the Army.
Australia is striving to become a valued partner in the US munitions supply chain. That will be good for them and assist the US to make up critical short falls already measured in years due to the usage rates in Ukraine. This initiative also provides an in-theater maintenance and supply capability that does not already exists. Australia provides strategic depth and a trusted and cleared high-end science and manufacturing base.
The United States, for purely selfish reasons, should partner with Australia and contribute to this policy - particularly enhancing the forward bases. It’s a golden opportunity.
THE DOCUMENT
AUSTRALIAN DEFENSE STRATEGIC REVIEW - HOT LINK
PDF with Thirdoffset’s markup
Official Announcement VIDEO
Defense Minister Interview
CRITICS
Update - AUSTRALIAN GENERALS RESPOND 27 APL 2023
The Chief of Army and the RAAF have both released very impressive responses to the Defense Strategic Review. Thirdoffset was unable to find one from the Chief of Navy no doubt due to the fact that the Navy is undergoing a further review in light of the acquisition of the Virginia SSNs and the requirement to examine the surface fleet force structure as discussed in the review.
Both Chief’s delver a very impressive message to their troops, the public and international friends and foes. These are leaders well versed in civ-mil relations and their responsibilities to enact the direction provided by the government.
Air Marshal Robert Chipman, AM, CSC, stated things very clearly
“The government has now had a chance to consider [the SDR] recommendations and deliver their response. These are our orders”
Lieutenant General Simon Stuart, AO, DSC
“We need to adapt quickly to the rapidly changing character of war. At the same time, we must not forget that war is.. a human endeavor… Things will be different. It is going to require us to use our imaginations to leverage the incredible capacity for innovation across our Army and to work together as a team. I am very confident that we are equal to the challenges that lie before us. I am relying on you to continue to earn and maintain trust in our Army, in our community, and the government we serve.
There is no hint of complaint. Rather, they see opportunity in change and recognize how vitally important it is that Australia change its outlook, posture and force structure to deter future threats.
Both speak authentically, seriously, and with justifiable pride in their service. I would add as an aside that Gen Stuart delivered his speech uninterrupted for 8min straight and did not miss a beat. A fine example of the highest standards of leadership and esprit de corps in the profession of arms. Thirdoffset is robustly confident that the ADF is led by the right people at the right time if these presentations are anything to go by.
China just know this - you will never extinguish the spirit of this people
It’s pretty clear to Thirdoffset that thanks to adversary political warfare success against the US since 2015, the American population is on the knifes edge of becoming incapable of maintaining the first three these outcomes. This should concern all Americans. It has also clearly informed he Australian this new assessment that the US as a guaranteed partner is unreliable.