Japan Fighter Aircraft Return to Philippines for First Time Since WWII
Major security shifts taking place in Indo-Pacific
Washington DC 9 DEC 2022
On the 81st anniversary of the simultaneous Japanese attacks on Pearl Harbor and the Philippines, the Japanese Self Defense Force (JSDF) just landed fighter aircraft in the Philippines for the first time since WWII.1 As his planes arrived, the Chief of Staff of the Japanese Air Self Defense Force, Gen. Izutsu Shunji, paid his respects to those who resisted Japanese aggression and occupation at the Heroes Cemetery near Manila.
This is a stunning development.
Its significance is illustrated by the fact it has taken this long to happen. Japan is not the only country in the region to significantly enhance its security ties in novel ways outside of the traditional security architecture. This note will highlight some of these shifts.
Gradually, then suddenly
Palmerston said that
We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.
Even the interests of the most powerful states cannot easily or quickly overcome the power of certain memories. The wounds of WWII run deep around the Asia Pacific region. The suffering of the Philippines under Imperial occupation is the stuff of legend. Most of the heroes in the cemetery near Manila demonstrated the valor for which they are remembered, in that period.
Thirdoffset vividly remembers his grandmother explaining to him when he was a young boy that the Japanese beheaded a family member who was the manager of a plantation in the Pacific to compel obedience of the other inhabitants of the island. Families in countries around the Pacific, and particularly in places like the Philippines, will have similar memories.2
Questions surrounding how Japan manages its memories are complex and deep and beyond the scope of this note. Nevertheless, it cannot escape the influence of the weight of history on its foreign relationships - with contemporary foes and friends alike. China, DPRK and South Korea remain particularly fraught relationships.
Japan also carries a very public burden of history in its constitution. Article 9 - obligates Japan to a bedrock policy of pacifism.
ARTICLE 9. (1) Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
(2) In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be sustained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.
This is why the military is called the Japanese Self Defense Force, its capabilities limited to defensive platforms, and its activities severely constrained, to include prohibition of participation in peacekeeping activities.
Japan and the United States are security treaty partners. That obligation is squared with Art 9 of the constitution by strictly proscribed territorial limits and mutual defense activities only when both political systems agree.
Art V. Each Party recognizes that an armed attack against either Party in the territories under the administration of Japan would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional provisions and processes.
When tectonic plates shift, bedrock goes with it
While peaceful, China’s rise was a matter of observation and subtle adjustment in economic policies. Since its rise started to take on a ‘wolf-warrior’ cast, China has rightly become a cause of growing concern in Japan and the region.
In 2014 the Abe Administration reinterpreted the constitution
that ended a ban on exercising the right of collective self-defense, or defending a friendly country under attack, if Japan’s survival is threatened.
The Parliament later codified this Cabinet decision in law. Further attempts to change Article 9 itself floundered, mostly for domestic political reasons. A substantial section of the public is staunchly anti military.3
An Asahi newspaper survey earlier this year showed 64% opposed revising Article 9 while 28% favored amendment.
Japan was unable to participate in the 1991 Gulf War for this reason. In 2019, deploying JSDF ships on “research and intelligence” missions in the Middle East was a cause for national debate.
Sending combat aircraft to a country that Japan invaded and occupied on the anniversary of that action is therefore a stunning development for all concerned.
Consequently, sending combat aircraft to a country that Japan invaded and occupied on the anniversary of that action is a stunning development for all concerned. It is the clearest possible symbol of fundamental shifts that are taking place in the region.
China has Changed All That
The US alliance system in the Pacific is described as a hub and spokes arrangement, with the US in the center connecting bilaterally with its individual treaty partners AUS, JPN, ROK, and PI; and then other partners and friends. Outside of that formal security architecture, soft power has been at the center of regional multilateral and bilateral relationships. ASEAN and APEC are the exemplars of this tradition.4
The preference for soft power cooperation and avoidance of hard power issues date to WWII, and more recently the 1960s, and the crippling impact of the wars in SE Asia. As it recovered, the region concentrated on economic cooperation and growth and deliberately excluded security issues. This approach worked in a period of extended peace and the absence of a serious threat. China has changed all that.
Hard power is now on the agenda in Asia. The US centered hub and spokes architecture is being enhanced from a wheel into a web. The US remains at the center, but the other partners multilateral and bilateral relationships are shifting from soft power economic cooperation to hard power security ties.5
This shift is countercultural to the purpose and history of extant institutions like APEC and ASEAN. So new organizations are being cut from whole cloth.
In the multi-lateral domain, the QUAD and AUKUS, have emerged as power houses due to the enthusiastic engagement of participants. The QUAD is a regional security grouping of Japan, Australia, the US and India. AUKUS, is a security treaty between Australia, the US and UK, dedicated to sharing highly classified defense technologies, that include, but go far beyond, nuclear submarine design.
Less well known is the hardening of bilateral relationships. All of the new agreements recite a version of what has become a stock phrase, affirming a commitment to “a free, open, inclusive and rules-based Indo-Pacific region”. This is a direct challenge to China that seeks the opposite.
New bilateral alliances - Japan
On October 22, 2022 the Australia-Japan Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation was signed by both Prime Minister’s in Perth. It is a multi-faceted arrangement that bears close reading in its entirety. At its core Australia and Japan pledge
We will consult each other on contingencies that may affect our sovereignty and regional security interests, and consider measures in response.
That language comes remarkably close to that used in Art V of the US-Japan security treaty. This too is a startling development in light of the above noted historical strictures on Japanese foreign policy.
Australia’s geography, particularly its largely under developed and sparsely populated north, offers extraordinary opportunities for unrestricted large scale military activities. For this reason, a squadron of Singaporean Air Force fighters is essentially based in Australia. Like Singapore, Japan’s regional environment is much more congested and contested. Part of the agreement will see JSDF units rotating through Australian bases on exercise.
India
India and Australia have gone beyond the QUAD to enhance their mutual security ties. Wartime allies in 1939-45 and commonwealth partners, India and Australia share cultural traditions, particularly the powerful sporting connection provided by cricket. Extremely popular in both countries, cricket has been played competitively for decades and has contributed to mutual respect, admiration and cultural understanding.
In June 2020 India and Australia concluded a major new security agreement. The key phrase of the agreement states that
Both sides agreed to continue to deepen and broaden defence [sic]cooperation by enhancing the scope and complexity of their military exercises and engagement activities to develop new ways to address shared security challenges.
Like every other partner, the Indians are also attracted to Australia’s training ranges.
Indonesia
Australian PM Anthony Albanese made Indonesia his first stop on his first international trip. He pointedly observed that
"Indonesia is on track to be one of the world's five largest economies," said Albanese, "Revitalising our trade and investment relationship is a priority for my government."
Thirdoffset has discussed in some detail the mutual complementarities between Australia and Indonesia when it comes to defending against the Chinese threat. He even went so far as to predict a future alliance between the two countries. Twenty years ago such a suggestion was impossible to imagine. In 2022 it makes a lot of sense, especially in light of the related deepening of the web of other bi-lat security arrangements around the Indo-Pacific.
The US
Historically, Australia has been very resistant to the idea of hosting American military bases. The joint intelligence facilities at Pine Gap, NW Cape and elsewhere are sufficiently low profile that they rarely attract popular or political attention. But mainstream US military bases like those in Okinawa have been off limits.
The sensitivity to bases has been ameliorated, and the benefits of bases socialized, to the Australian public through the fillip of “rotating” US units through Australia’s remote north since 2012. Together with an abrupt reversal of popular sentiment away from Australia’s #1 trading partner - China - the US has seized the moment and embarked on the road to permanent basing in the land of wonder, the land down under.
Reuters reports that at the AUSMIN meeting just concluded in Dec 2022 SECDEF Austin said
“The United States will increase the rotational presence of air, land and sea forces in Australia, including bomber aircraft and fighter jets.” Austin said the two countries also agreed to "invite Japan to integrate into our force posture initiatives in Australia."
The AUSMIN Joint Statement announced significant US investments in Australia’s defense infrastructure at bases across the North. The US will enhance its force posture
with runway improvements, parking aprons, fuel infrastructure, explosive ordnance storage infrastructure, facilities to support the workforce, preposition stores, munitions, and fuel in support of U.S. capabilities in Australia and to demonstrate logistics interoperability through joint exercises.
The agreement also commits to
"strengthen U.S. land presence," by expanding locations for U.S. Army and U.S. Marine Corps forces in Australia.
The addition of the US Army is notable, as is the language of “expanding locations”, that sounds like expanding extant base infrastructure and facilities to accommodate prolonged and deepened US engagement.
Australia also expressed a commitment to becoming a critical node in the US defense supply chain. This makes a lot of sense as war stocks have been run down far more rapidly than anticipated and demand grows for US weapons that have proved their mettle in the war in Ukraine.6
US Force Posture
The deepening of the relationship with Australia is essential to enhancing US force posture in the Indo-Pacific. What this really means is a combination of greater defense in depth and risk mitigation by dispersal of forces. This is driven by China’s “A2AD” - anti access area denial - missile envelope - depicted below.
In the map (click on it for detail) the top left missile ranges are based on mainland Chinese launch sites. The bottom right ranges are hypothetical missile ranges based on placement of systems in the Solomon Islands - a prospect discussed elsewhere by Thirdoffset.
As previously noted by Thirsoffset, Guam is exceptionally vulnerable to Chinese missile systems, although the since that note, urgent upgrades have been announced to its defenses (inline with suggestions made by Thirdoffset).
Readers will note that key Australian bases - including the vital intelligence joint facilities - are, like Guam, also within mainland Chinese missile range. However, Australia is further away increasing warning time and unlike the 212 sq miles of Guam, offers limitless deception and dispersal opportunities.
Space
Australia is also increasingly vital to US space operations that now must cope with the challenge of early warning of hypersonic and other threats coming via the southern route, which has implications for strategic deterrence and other important challenges.
US Space Force’s Lt. General Nina M. Armagno said Australia’s geographical position and research capabilities represented a “pot of a gold at the end of the rainbow” for the two countries’ strategic interests in space defence.
B-21
A possible future way to deepen the relationship was recently proposed by a US analyst who raised the prospect of selling the B-21 bomber to the Australians. Like the nuclear submarine deal, previous discussed by Thirdoffset, the technology exchange involved in either program is of the greatest national sensitivity, but it makes sense from the perspective of spreading costs: of R&D, production, basing and through life costs.
It’s a provocative idea and will take time to study. However, AUKUS is not about platforms, it’s about sharing technology. Gen Armagno noted in her presentation, Australia has some impressive niche knowledge and technologies, access to which would benefit the US. When asked about the B-21 idea at AUSMIN Secretary Austin said it was not on the table. Pointedly, he also did not rule it out.
Conclusion
Just as Putin’s attack on Ukraine strengthened and enlarged NATO, bringing it directly into contact with Russia’s border; Xi’s aggressive nationalism has aroused the Indo-Pacific region to take hard power seriously for the first time since the war in Vietnam. The return of the battle flag of the rising sun to the Philippines, on the anniversary of Japan’s invasion of those islands 81 years ago, tells you everything you need to know about China’s impact on regional security.
Update - 12 Sep 2023 - Australia Philippines Commit to Strategic Partnership
Australia and the Philippines agreed to joint patrols in the South China Sea on Friday as the two countries elevated their ties to a strategic partnership. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Philippine President Bongbong Marcos inked several agreements and a joint declaration during their first-ever bilateral meeting in Manila amid tensions with China.
Update 10 Sept 2023 - Gen. Yoshihide Yoshida, chief of staff of the Joint Staff
Update 16 Aug 2023 - Japan flexes military muscles in Australia
The Talisman Saber 2023 exercise has finished in Australia. The exercise included 13 countries and was an impressive and complex mix of amphibious, maritime, ground, air and combined arms training. And all geared toward war-fighting. Even Japan’s Self-Defense Force (JSDF) sent a contingent.
Japan’s contingent included the Japanese navy, along with amphibious ships JS Izumo and JS Shimokita. It also sent the Ground Self-Defense Force’s “Marines” – the Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade (ARDB) – and the Japanese army’s 1st Helicopter Brigade.
The Japanese even took advantage of Australia’s wide open training ranges to launch Type 12 surface-to-ship (anti-ship) missiles as well as Type 03 surface-to-air (anti-aircraft) missiles. They seldom do this sort of training in Japan.
And the GSDF brought other units from the Western Army, Eastern Army, and Northern Army. They even included the artillery training detachment from GSDF’s Fuji Schools. This gave them practice and also exposure to operations with foreign militaries and in a “foreign” environment.
Update 16 DEC 2022 - Huge jump in Japanese Defense Spending
Japanese PM announces $320 bn defense spending boost designed to put it on track to 2% of GDP and world third largest budget after the US and China.
Dec 7 in Hawaii was Dec 8 in the Philippines due to the international date line.
Even as recently as the 1990s, Australian veterans organizations like the RSL would be outraged by the suggestion that Australia and Japan cooperate on low-level regional security initiatives. Australia was never occupied, but 15,000 troops were imprisoned after the rapid fall of “fortress of Singapore”. They were not treated well.
PM Abe was assassinated recently but the motive was unconnected to his foreign policies.
Even the ASEAN Regional Forum - created in 1994 the most ‘hard power’ oriented organization, focuses on “security dialogue” which has an important role but is as soft as it sounds and has been described in mostly unflattering terms - one of the more discreet of which has been “frustrating”.
This also reflects regional concern about the strength of the US commitment to the region as Neo-isolationism has crept back into US politics from a number of sources, not the least of which has been the bi-partisan foreign policy failures in the Middle East.
Supply Chain
Australian defense industry minister Pat Conroy discussed this change in mindset from interoperability to interchangeability. It sounds similar but would have profound geostrategic and industrial implications. Wisely, the Australians have ‘read the room’ and understand that there is an opening for Australian industry to feed the voracious appetite for US munitions expended in Ukraine. Coupled with a global surge in demand for battle proven US technologies, the Australians plan to grow their footprint in the supply chain while at the same time assuring supply of their own war stocks. Minister Conroy again
A key element of the alliance between Australia and the United States is industrial collaboration. This [is] about our two industrial bases complementing and supplementing each other to create a system greater than the sum of its parts. We are pooling our expertise and knowledge to build Australia’s critical guided-weapons stores, while also delivering a trusted second source of critical munitions to the United States.