5 Virginias SSNs for Australia
Latest News before announcement Monday - But, America First
Washington DC 10 March 2023
Reuters now says 5 VA SSNs followed by participation in joint UK/US follow on Astutes.
The first step is a good one. VAs are sensible for AUS in that they are not trying to build an SSN production capacity 'overnight'. It's great for the US because AUS would provide the only secure deep maintenance facility besides (exposed) Guam west of Pearl. AUS interests in manufacturing advanced munitions is an added bonus for both countries.1 AUS has truly unique advantages for US forces in the Indo-Pacific - geographical, political, industrial, logistical, intelligence-sharing, systems interoperability, and strategic.
However, the SSN deal faces many challenges. Especially ITAR reform, related bureaucratic inertia, US industrial capacity shortfalls, an already strained maxed out order book, and most dangerously - political challenges.
Australia is embarking on the right course of action in terms of platforms and capability to defend Australia. However, in the likely future global and US domestic political climate, AUS is exposing itself to extreme risk with no back-up plan. That risk is compounded for AUS because its submarine program management has already suffered multiple stops and starts, resulting in an $840m penalty for dropping the French boats, for just one example.
One day in the future, Australians and Americans who support the post war American order, may look back at AUKUS as one of the straws that broke the back of the alliance system. It might become a modern analogue of the failure of the Treaty of Versailles, proposed, sponsored and backed by Woodrow Wilson, only to be abandoned by the isolationists in the US Senate, becoming a causal factor in WWII.
America First = Possible Sudden death for the deal
As previously reported here on Thirdoffset, the threats to AUKUS come from multiple vectors, bureaucratic, industrial and technical. But the political threat is the most likely - high consequence threat.
Supporters of “America First” view everything in simplistic zero sum terms. In their world view, AUKUS is taking vital advanced American military assets and ‘giving them away’ to “globalists”.
If a loud angry minority can threaten support of a free country in Europe valiantly resisting a dictator engaged in war crimes and genocide, it's not hard to imagine those same elected representatives (or their successors in the future) "putting America first" and halting the sale of SSNs in order to keep them in the US arsenal.
This possibility is accentuated by the only bipartisan agreement in national security - that China is a threat. In a normal world, that should result in a desire to strengthen alliances like ANZUS and AUKUS (not to mention the benefit of burden sharing). The problem is America First is driven by absolutist devotion to bumper sticker ideas as policy. It has only one simple policy - termination of all US alliances.2
Therefore, any US election over the next 30 years that favors America First thinking runs the high risk of sudden termination of AUKUS (a Biden success) leaving AUS dangerously vulnerable to Chinese aggression.3
Australia might not have to wait 30 years to find out whether it can trust America. The leading GOP Presidential candidate for 2024 just declared America is the greatest threat to the world. Consequently, he plans to withdrawal the US from NATO and destroy the State Dept, DOD, IC, and ally with Russia.
These are not empty words. He has laid out a comprehensive plan to fire all policy making positions in the national security establishment and replace them with loyalists who will not question his decisions as happened in the past. His desire to end NATO is on the record in multiple places. Trump hailed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as a stroke of genius and ‘beautiful’. He declared his allegiance to Putin over the US intelligence community in Helsinki. Just this week yet another controversy has erupted over Russian money propping up his failed social media venture and Russian support of Trump in the election continue to echo with the sentencing of a Trump official for illegal campaign contributions from Russian sources. Trumps links with the Russians goes back to the 1980s. For example, Deutsche Bank, fined for its support of Russian mobsters who are cut outs for the FSB and GRU, was the only bank in the world to make loans to Trump after he lost a billion dollars. There is no commercial explanation for the deals DB made with Trump and others in his circle (Kushner most prominently).
If Trump dumps NATO, rewarding war criminal Putin with victory from the jaws of defeat, what faith should any Australian government place in AUKUS should Trump win in 2024 or simply attempt a second coup - having learned from his trial run in 2021. Discounting Trump’s prospects for either outcome could be naive. Regardless, his America First ideas are now “baked in” to GOP policy positions. Desantis may try to position himself in opposition to Trump on some issues but not on foreign policy. This week he called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “territorial dispute” to avoid getting attacked on this issue in primary debates. Murdoch’s Fox is pushing America First ideas daily. Fearful of its base, Reagan’s GOP - pro freedom and democracy around the world - is dead. Maga supported by an avowed propaganda network that is the highest rating on TV, disagrees with maga policies but wants the ratings and money, now controls the GOP with or without Trump.
USN and Congressional Reactions
Even without America First pressures, AUKUS faces real and significant challenges. Navy Times has reported that, “the Navy is buying two submarines a year, but industry is only delivering at a rate of 1.2 a year.” Admiral Daryl Caudle, USN, the commander of U.S. Fleet Forces Command, has already been frustrated by supply chain and related dilemmas:
“In five years, instead of delivering 10 fast attack submarines, I got six. Where’s the other four? My force is already four submarines short,” Caudle said. Ships coming out of maintenance availabilities late, both at Navy public yards and private industry yards, worsens the problem. “While the Navy should have 10 of its 50 subs in deep maintenance, 19 are in or awaiting repairs. Imagine if I was on time, my submarine force would be nine ships larger.” he said.
It’s not hard to imagine how Admiral Caudle will take the news that the next 5 SSNs coming off the line are going to Australia. Alternatively, if the plan turns out that Australia will get close to retirement Virginias (or even mothballed Virginias) that still impacts US fleet maintenance cycles, operations, and readiness. This is before the people question is even considered. US forces are facing significant recruitment challenges. SSN qualified operators are not in over abundance or easily acquired.
As previously analyzed here on Thirdoffset, Congressional leaders - none of whom are America First adherents - have also started to push back on US involvement in the AUKUS deal.
The United States needs Australia
The United States needs Australia. Advances in Chinese military technologies coupled with new agreements with small island states in the second and third island chains, leaves Australia as the last outpost with sufficient strategic depth from which to conduct operations around the first island chain.
The US Navy desperately needs survivable submarine service and maintenance facilities in the region. Currently Guam is the only SSN maintenance facility in the SW Pacific. Even with its coming missile defense upgrades, every single item of military significance on that island is already zeroed in on PLA missile guidance systems. The first thousand shots of any war will be to deny Guam (Okinawa and other close-in bases) from US forces.
That is an unacceptable strategic risk that must be addressed as a matter of urgency.
New Virginia boats operated under an Australia flag from bases deep in the South Pacific is better than US flagged boats operating from Hawaii. The Australians would be picking up the bulk of the costs of manufacturing new submarines coming off the production line as they learn the complex new systems the US has already decided to share with them. In exchange, America would be investing in new submarine bases that it would need to build somewhere in the region anyway as a back up to Guam. No other location offers the advantages that Australia does to USN submarine operations.
Congress needs to stop thinking about these programs as some kind of international social welfare program that leaves America last. AUKUS puts America first by shoring up its last remaining strategic bastion in the Indo-Pacific surrounded by tumultuous seas. The tragedy is America First adherents have no interested in international relations or global strategy. They just want to “own the libs” and get air time on right wing media to fill their coffers to win the next election. Global security be damned.
AUS has also been pushing hard to be granted licenses to produce high-end US munitions. This makes sense for the above stated reasons, as well as supply chain diversity, filling backlogs, and provision of a regional source of war stocks. Again ITAR will be a challenge here but if the US is serious about war in the Pacific the SSN and munitions deals are an incredible opportunity to strengthen US and regional security.
Trump is already on the record as wanting to terminate NATO and the South Korean alliance. He had a falling out with the then AUS PM. Shinzo Abe was the most successful Asian leader in terms of curtailing Trumps worst instincts. He was also a driving force behind the Quad. The new Japanese government is very strong on defense but it remains to be seen if anyone could curb a second Trump Administrations impulses to support Putin and Kim Jong Un and destroy the alliance system. America First does not need Trump to destroy AUKUS. It just needs to control congress and have a President unwilling to veto - a president DeSantis would happily terminate AUKUS. Ironically, the likelihood is Trump will get the nomination even if he is under indictment. Nor is being imprisoned a bar for being President under the rules of the Constitution. Trump is unelectable in a general election but a third party could put him in office. The US is undergoing unprecedented political turmoil following the first coup attempt. Assuming future stability would be a big mistake. Things have improved following the mid-terms, but major threats to US democracy still remain.
America First members are a small vocal minority. But they have outsized political influence due to their dominant media profiles that have translated into raw political power. They forced the new Speaker to bend to their will. If the GOP gain control of the House and Senate, even if the majority are not America First candidates, there could be circumstances, like those that currently apply, where they can call the shots. They will be delighted to reverse a Biden success and they can sell it as the ultimate expression of putting America first. Strategic and war fighting considerations mean nothing to them. This is why they pose such a danger to the international order in Europe today and anywhere in the future. They will sacrifice alliances to maximize propaganda power, let alone seize political power.
Again well written. However, being an Australian I must comment.
Political ideology on both sides will be a major sore point in this whole deal. It took Australia a long time to find a suitable place to put domestic medical Nuclear waste material because of the environment ect…. A submarine dry dock, housing Nuclear submarines, will not be an easy find. Another very, very sore point will be the whole attitude the US will bring to the alliance. Australia is not a republic but we are our own, we follow nobody. The Aus defence force will boast some of the most sophisticated weapons (yes there American, yes there expensive) however, as the war in The Ukraine has shown Autonomous vehicles is the way forward, this brings Australia to the same level as anyone else. We can quadruple our operational capacity without putting a single life on the line. We are an island nation, deep sea autonomous mines, fast-attack submarines, autonomous under-sea kamikaze drones (maybe)- no help needed. In my opinion, yes Australia needs the US alliance but it should not be taken for granted by the US. Australia is of very-high strategic value for the US in any major conflict against China, as you stated, however, the Australian public also knows this.
Attempted coup. See the Jan 6 commission. All of the former presidents political allies and staff knew it was a coup and said so. See for example https://youtu.be/3niEyjCp2R4