Allied Carrier Taskforce Deploys to SCS
Historic signal of unity and commitment to a free and open Indopacific
Washington DC 21 AUG 2023
The Military Times is reporting that the US, Australia and Japan are each sending an aircraft carrier to Philippines waters and the SCS to conduct joint drills as a show of force in response to Chinese escalation against routine resupply of a Philippine-occupied shoal.1 The only thing that could have made this more remarkable would have been participation of an Indian carrier.
The U.S. State Department said in a statement that “firing water cannons and employing unsafe blocking maneuvers, PRC ships interfered with the Philippines’ lawful exercise of high seas freedom of navigation and jeopardized the safety of the Philippine vessels and crew.” It added that such actions are the latest by the PRC in the South China Sea and are a direct threat to “regional peace and stability.”
Australia expressed its concern, describing the actions of the Chinese coast guard ship as “dangerous and destabilizing.”
Japan said it supported the Philippines, adding that “the harassment and action, which infringe on lawful activities of the sea and endanger navigational safety,” were “totally unacceptable.”
The exercise of freedom of navigation by independent destroyers and frigates from many nations is a common occurrence in the region. Transits by US carrier strike or amphibious groups happen a few times a year. However, the dispatch of aircraft carriers from 3 nations, in particular Japan, marks an historic shift in allied posture.
This development comes at a very busy time in the region for the allies. Major military exercises have been underway in recent weeks, including the Malabar and Talisman Sabre war games - noted below. The Philippines, Australia and Japan all share security treaties with the United States and have all enhanced bi-lateral and multi-lateral military cooperation with one another.
Thirdoffset has previously highlighted the substantially changed role of Japan’s Self Defense Forces starting with the visit of F-15s to the Philippines last December. The participation of Japanese combat forces in multi-national war-games away from the home islands is also a new development (see link below). Japan has recently doubled its defense budget and announced its decision to acquire long range strike capabilities in response to its strategic assessment that it faces major threats from DPRK, PRC and Russia. All of whom have been exercising around the Japanese islands in recent months.
Just last week there was another historic development involving Japan. President Biden hosted a summit between the leaders of Japan and the Republic of Korea at Camp David. The two major regional powers have acknowledged that they have much more to gain from working together against growing common threats than continuing to focus solely on historical differences in their bi-lateral relationship. History runs deep in the region, but all now agree the threat runs deeper.
The tri-nation carrier Taskforce is a powerful signal by three of the four Quad members of their commitment to a free and open Indopacific. It marks a very different military posture adopted by Tokyo in recent months. Australia has not been shy in calling out China as a threat and deciding to significantly enhance its spending on long range power projection capabilities.
Major changes are now coming thick and fast in the Indopacific. Japan has gone from no deployments of combat troops since WWII, to dispatching an aircraft carrier as part of a multination carrier task force to send a signal to Beijing. We have entered a period of rapid change bordering on paradigm shift. All the old realities are being flipped on their heads in unexpected ways. China’s belligerence and constant provocations against Taiwan and the Philippines, its political warfare against Australia and NZ, and its economic warfare against Australia have awoken a sleeping region that will take extraordinary measures to ensure the Pacific stays pacific.
A footnote on AUSKUS - The SSNs make no sense whatsoever - with one exception
As it stands, the premise of AUKUS does not add up. Official Australian estimates put the costs of AUKUS at $368bn in 2023. Assuming $100bn for facilities, that would buy 62 Virginia SSN or 121 Arleigh Burke destroyers. (For comparison, the USN currently has 70 DDGs.) The average cost of a hospital in New South Wales is $50m that equates to AUKUS costing ~5360 hospitals.
Traditional military readiness rates run at about 1:3. That means Australia would only be able to put 1 boat to sea at any one point in time.2
In sum: Australia is going to spend $368bn for 1 SSN at sea?
Moreover, the alliance gets no additional hulls in the water. The subs are coming off the production line with or without AUKUS. In effect, Australia is paying America to do what the US would be doing anyway (at its own expense).
There is no way this makes sense.
Or does it?
Thirdoffset suspects that Australia has ulterior motives. Click the link below for more on that possibility:
War Games
Malabar is a maritime war game involving India, the US, Australia and Japan. Australia played host for the first time this year. In the video below, ships from the game enter Sydney Harbor.
The 2023 Talisman Sabre war game in Queensland was the biggest ever conducted, with more than 30,000 troops, ships, aircraft, submarines, SOF and space assets, from 12 nations including, for the first time, Germany and France. It provided a platform to test and evaluate new logistics and amphibious deployment concepts. TS23 took advantage of the huge training ranges in Australia, and involved live firing of HIMARS and related advanced long range missiles systems being sold by the US to Australia. The video below go into consider detail on the exercise.
An interesting side story to the TS23 game was this report on the deployment of Chinese satellites to observe the games and Australian defense capabilities in general:
Update Australian ABC News interviews PI fishermen about Chinas aggressive tactics
On July 12, 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, Netherlands invalidated Beijing's nine-dash line claim over the South China Sea, in favor of Philippine sovereignty.
Currently, Australia has just one Collins Class submarine ready for duty out of 6.