Marines - Aussies Endorse Force Design 2030
Washington DC 21 APL 2023
Australia is about to release a new Defense Strategic Review expected to be made public before Anzac Day (25 APL). Below are some predictions from the ABC. The review comes in the context of the astronomical AUKUS sub deal, observation of operations in Ukraine and their applicability to the local theatre, rapidly changing alliance relationships in the Indopacific (not directly involving the US) and the USMC Force Design 2030 debate.
AUS has a defacto US Marine base in Darwin and plans to be fighting along side Marines and the US Army as it did in WWII. The projections suggest the ADF has decided to endorse the broad parameters of FD2030 and is putting its money where its mouth is by emulating the decisions made by Gen Berger USMC in cutting traditional combined arms capabilities in order to pay for the latest high tech combined arms effect™ capabilities.1
REDUCTIONS
Australia has announced the following significant changes to its land power
Reducing the number of infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) from 450 to 129
Cancelling a planned second regiment of self-propelled Howitzers
TO PAY FOR
Army will also increase spending on HiMARS and fast-track its acquisition of [other] deadly weapons that have been deployed with great effect by Ukraine against Russia’s invading forces.
Speeding-up and expanding the acquisition of land-based anti-ship missiles for the army.
Faster and larger procurement of Army landing craft to help bring personnel and equipment on shore.
TO WATCH FOR
Will current or past AUS Army generals attack current leadership for these decisions?
Notably, the Review was conducted by a former politician (and Minister of Defense) and a former Air Force Chief of the ADF.
Despite being an island bordering three vast oceans, AUS is a continental power at heart. The Army is at the root of AUS national identity forged on ANZAC day 1915 (in terms of national significance, it is their July 4th). The Army has been the backbone of all overseas operations from Crimea (1856) to Afghanistan (2021). Historically, it has been the supported force.
So it will be interesting to watch for any major push back. I don't expect any because AUS Army generals don't say emotional things like "what has happened to my beloved army?" They would get laughed at. Diggers aren't big on EMO. They also likely appreciate that they will have what is needed to respond to a PLA incursion on the mainland in the extraordinarily remote chance that might occur, and that the best defense for the China threat is as far forward as possible working with friends and allies proximate to the South China Sea.2
Suffice to observe for now that these changes mirror closely the thinking behind FD2030 and as such, represents a substantive endorsement of Gen Berger and his team’s hard work by one of our closest allies in the theatre of future operations. In other words, if AUS get FD2030 wrong, it is arguably more consequential for them and their neighbors.
Thirdoffset will monitor AUS Army reactions and post accordingly. Update - see below.
Note: There is a significant elite defense debate taking place in AUS that Thirdoffset has been trying to find time to write about. The debate is among politicians and retired strategic planners, the generals have largely stayed out of it. On the one side are pro-China doves who believe there is no threat, AUS policy is unnecessarily making the country a target, Taiwan should be on its own, and trade with China is more important than the remote chance China might try to “invade” (a deliberate straw man). The Hawks are aligned with US orthodoxy on the threat and importance of robust deterrence to prevent war. More to follow when Thirdoffset can make the time. BLUF: the Hawks have it.
Update - Post Strategic review Responses 27 APL 2023
As predicted, no EMO from digger generals.
The Chief of Army and the RAAF have both released very impressive responses to the Defense Strategic Review. Thirdoffset was unable to find one from the Chief of Navy no doubt due to the fact that the Navy is undergoing a further review in light of the acquisition of the Virginia SSNs and the requirement to examine the surface fleet force structure as discussed in the review.
Both Chief’s delver a very impressive message to their troops, the public and international friends and foes. These are leaders well versed in civ-mil relations and their responsibilities to enact the direction provided by the government.
Air Marshal Robert Chipman, AM, CSC, stated things very clearly
“The government has now had a chance to consider [the SDR] recommendations and deliver their response. These are our orders”
Lieutenant General Simon Stuart, AO, DSC
“We need to adapt quickly to the rapidly changing character of war. At the same time, we must not forget that war is.. a human endeavor… Things will be different. It is going to require us to use our imaginations to leverage the incredible capacity for innovation across our Army and to work together as a team. I am very confident that we are equal to the challenges that lie before us. I am relying on you to continue to earn and maintain trust in our Army, in our community, and the government we serve.
There is no hint of complaint. Rather, they see opportunity in change and recognize how vitally important it is that Australia change its outlook, posture and force structure to deter future threats.
Both speak authentically, seriously, and with justifiable pride in their service. I would add as an aside that Gen Stuart delivered his speech uninterrupted for 8min straight and did not miss a beat. A fine example of the highest standards of leadership and esprit de corps in the profession of arms. Thirdoffset is robustly confident that the ADF is led by the right people at the right time if these presentations are anything to go by.
Army
RAAF
RAN
No data as yet, likely due to new review
Combined Arms Effect™ thirdoffset :)