If America falls, Australia will be in uncharted territory
China positions itself to close off Australia from the world
Washington DC 4 July 2022
In the wake of the Solomon Island deal, Australian 60 Minutes [runtime 25min] looks at China’s efforts in the region using PNG as a case study. They interview Former Commander INDOPACOM, new Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong who has been touring the region behind her Chinese counterpart, the PM of PNG, Alan DuPont an Australian strategic analyst, and a local official responsible for bringing to life a huge BRI project (Belt and Road Initiative) - complete with Chinese fighter jets in the promo video! [A classic case of PRC hubris masquerading as psyops]
60M is a tabloid show but this is a solid effort gaining access to the right interview subjects and going on the ground in the region. It reflects the fact a sufficiently sizable portion of the Australian public are now interested in this issue. Such a program would never have made it to air 5 years ago.
PRC getting pushy
China overstepped the mark in its attacks on Australia for expressing independent thoughts about its future. Not to mention its direct interference in Australian politics. Duncan Lewis, Australia’s former national security adviser bluntly concluded that the CCP was trying to "take over" the Australian political system. Peter Jennings, a former senior defense official and the executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, spoke for many when he said “our senior leaders, to use an Australian saying, have had a ‘gutful’ of China”. This change of opinion on China is reflected among the Australian population in general as this polling shows.
The new labor government in Canberra was painted as Chicom stooges by their opponents in the recent election. People saw through the ruse. The fact is the former government ignored developments in the Solomons and the rest of the third island chain off Australia’s coast. The US relied on Australian foreign, defense and intelligence services to deliver ‘coverage’ of the region to Washington. An arrangement that made a lot of sense, given Australia’s deep understanding of its immediate region and Washington’s many other higher/immediate priorities like Ukraine.
The money or the gun?
As Thirdoffset has written before, there was a clear disconnect between the staff level and decision making levels in this coverage in Canberra. This resulted in the US being blindsided by the Solomons decision. In response, Kurt Campbell was rushed to the region. His diplomacy appeared unprepared. He offered a few shriveled carrots while brandishing a big but vague stick. It was not a well thought out response.
Carrots
Open an embassy (ending reliance on AUS as ‘Dep. Sheriff’)
Boost cooperation on unexploded WWII ordinance (too little too late)
Send Mercy hospital ship for a weeks worth of medical care (fine as far as it goes but hardly an enduring commitment on par with massive Chinese ‘investment’)
Stick
US will "respond accordingly" to any steps to establish a permanent Chinese military presence in the Pacific island nation. [Ed: Meaningless & counter productive.]
New Australian FM Penny Wong has a tough road ahead as she tries to keep Pacific family members in the fold with a very small purse. As she admits in this video, she has to primarily appeal to cultural and historical ties. Against billion dollar infrastructure loans with massive military grade airports and seaports, the ‘feelz’ only get one so far.
An additional challenge is island states are far more concerned about climate change than great power politics. In April the Pacific Elders Voice Group said climate was more important than the threat from China to the region (clipping below). Yet they welcome Chinese investment without always joining the dots because they have not been playing at this level before.
So when China comes along with huge no strings attached investments they appear to locals as a new friend interested only in economic development. Many of these countries have languished for decades far from the centers of power. Sudden great power interest in them is a refreshing change. They owe it to their impoverished people to capitalize on the opportunity. (Some leaders might make a little on the side - China has no qualms greasing palms). The excitement of the PNG PM in having an opportunity to play great powers off one another is self-evident in his interview. He does not seem to fully grasp the long term political risks in dealing with Beijing. This is not like playing the Soviets and Americans in the 1970s. China is much more assertive and gets away with it because America is increasingly introspective and unlikely to really get skin in the game to halt Chinese pressure tactics.
There is also the problem that ‘no strings attached’ Chinese investment is a myth. The BRI is a Chinese Marshall Plan. The original Marshall Plan was a huge stimulus package for the postwar US economy because it required recipients to use American money and capabilities for reconstruction. However, there were additional benefits that flowed to the host nations. Under BRI, there is no technology transfer, no employment or training of local populations (the PRC imports its own labor), and the Chinese turn a blind eye to human right abuses and the like. Hidden from the islanders (if not from their leaders, who will be long gone by the time the trouble starts) is the fact that Chinese investments are in fact loans. Upon default, these loans become a vehicle for the establishment of sovereign Chinese outposts. As Alan DuPont makes clear in his interview, ‘Debt for equity swaps’ is the boardroom jargon for this backdoor economic imperialism. This is the engine room of the BRI.
When the crunch comes, will PNG, the Solomons, Vanuatu or Kiribati be able to stop China doing what it wants? Will they have the capacity to even know what China is doing in their territory? For example, the PRC could slip a few IRBM TELs (Transporter Erector Launches) ashore in remote islands without host nation detection. The map below shows IRBM, MRBM and SRBM missile ranges from facilities based in China (existing) and with systems moved ashore in the Solomon Islands (hypothetical).
Australia is the canary in the coal mine
Once this happens Australia will be isolated - an island under siege. Extending the Chinese A2AD (Anti Access Area Denial) envelope across the entire Australian continent and eastern approaches changes everything - including the splendid isolation of US intelligence facilities in the outback.
The Chinese have been threatening Australia for years. So far Australia has resisted Chinese pressure, secure in its unique geography and the benefits conferred by the ANZUS alliance. The vast expanse of the inhospitable outback remains a formidable barrier even to 21st C military capabilities. In WWII the “Brisbane Line” spanned the continent from east to west. Above it was a ‘dead zone’ that the Japanese would have to master before getting anywhere near to population centers. The outback is as old as time. It has not changed in millennia. It remains one of the most hostile environments on earth, and thats before you add humans.
Unlike the outback, the alliance is not immutable. It is contingent on America continuing to be a stable sensible place willing and able to meet its many global commitments. That’s looking increasingly like a contested proposition. Australia’s future will get very complicated indeed if America capitulates to its highly motivated anti-democratic forces. Trump’s disdain for alliances and support for anti-American dictators is well documented. Trump also hates it when his political rivals are seen to be successful. Thus “Biden’s AUKUS” sub deal will be cancelled. The subs are only a part of the deal. A very significant set of technologies are part of the package, including advanced missile, radar and AI tech. All these will be lost too. Outside of AUKUS, Australia’s general reliance on US military technology will be at the whim of the reinstalled President. Australian independence of thought will be as welcomed by Washington as Beijing by that point.
Actions not words
In fact, one of the bellwethers of regional faith in America is the transformation of regional military capabilities. Australia is a superb example. The ADF of 2022 is a completely different animal to the ADF of 2002. By any measure, funding, platforms, weapons, sensors, C4ISR, C2, organizational structures, and TTPs, in twenty years the ADF has grown from a sapling into a eucalyptus forrest. This was in accordance with defense planning that was premised on the maintenance of a minimal force able to grow and fill out in time for war. The change indicates their assessment of the changed regional dynamic. Equally, the transformation of the ADF is hard evidence that Australia has lost its faith in America and has been busy preparing to fight a war. If necessary, alone.
To avoid that worst case Australian diplomacy has also radically changed. The bilateral relationship with Uncle Sam has been downgraded from its position of near total dominance. It has been rebalanced against enhanced regional bilateral relationships (especially with Japan, India and Indonesia), and the newly formed multilateral platform known as the QUAD. The Quad is designed to keep the Chinese out, the Americans in, and individual national defense spending down.
Australia - Indonesia Alliance
Australia has completely reassessed its place in the world and they way in which it secures its territory from Chinese intimidation unrestrained by any other great power. Things have changed so much that Thirdoffset predicts that Indonesia and Australia will form a strategic alliance in the next 5 years. Hitherto impossible to imagine for historical reasons, it is rapidly becoming an obvious move for both countries. Sure Indonesia was a leader in the non-aligned movement, but that reached its peak in the 1960s. They also have some history with China. Like their nonaligned brothers and sisters in India, they know that non-alignment is a dead letter in the 2020s. Since the fall of Suharto, Indonesia has undergone a remarkable political and economic transformation in which Australia has wisely played an active and constructive part. Indonesia is a fledgling genuine democracy that carefully and gradually downgraded the preeminence of the military in civic life. At the same time it has continued to liberalize its economy and open to the world. It has grown a capable technocratic management class and elected political leaders who are vastly improved from the pre-1999 mold. Its is not problem free. It has separatist movements and a radicalization problem. But these pale by compassion to the threat posed by China.
Indonesia’s strategic appreciation of Australia (and vice versa) has matured considerably. Recent chirps from the canary in this coal mine includes the following remarkable statement from the Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto on the Australian announcement to pursue nuclear powered submarines, something that would have once triggered a crisis in Jakarta.
“But as I said the emphasis of every country is to protect their national interest. If they feel threatened… they will do whatever they can to protect themselves," said Prabowo. “And this is what I mean that we understand that and we respect them.”
In short, Indonesian strategists now appreciate that the real and rapidly growing threat from China eclipses any fear they historically had about Australia. Indeed, there seems to be a growing realization in both capitals that the complementarities between the two against China make them natural partners. The Chinese have to go through Indonesia to get to Australia, so Jakarta would be dragged in either way. Indonesia’s 17000 islands and the world’s 4th largest population together constitute a natural barrier to invasion and a superior base from which to mount operations against the Chinese compared to distant northern Australia. The ADF brings a very capable high tech military force to the table that, combined with Indonesian manpower, would be quite a porcupine for China to attempt to grab.
Over the past 20 years Australia and Indonesia have worked quite closely in the wake of events that might otherwise have been expected to drive them apart (Bali and Jakarta bombings for example). Indonesian confidence is growing as their economy starts to propel them to a new place in the world.
“Indonesia will grow to be one of the top five economies in the world in coming years. What that represents is enormous opportunity for Australia”
This was the judgement of the new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese who made a point of going to Indonesia on his first bilateral trip.
Australian nuclear deterrent
If the radically changed outlook in Australia over the past decade is anything to go by, further revolutionary changes in how they perceive and act upon threats to their interests will be on the horizon if America is removed as a reliable alliance partner. All of America’s partners are concerned that the attempted coup might have a second, successful, stage. They all know that would end American support for the free world.
Most likely, Australia will rapidly adopt nuclear weapons. It does not have to create a complete nuclear triad with credible second strike capability. It just needs a handful of nuclear weapons and unconventional delivery options to make China blink. It is now feasible to imagine Indonesia secretly agreeing to an Australian nuclear deterrent if America collapses - if not pursuing their own. After all, they themselves once considered such an option.
Update - 13 July 2022
The prime minister of Solomon Islands has guaranteed there will never be a Chinese military base in his country, saying that any such deal with Beijing would undermine regional security, make Solomon Islands an “enemy” and “put our country and our people as targets for potential military strikes”.
He has also said that Australia remains the “security partner of choice” for Solomon Islands and he would only call on China to send security personnel to the country if there was a “gap” that Australia could not meet.
Looks like Penny Wong’s regional tour had the desired impact. The problem remains that once the PRC’s foot is in the door, if it decides to put TELs on an island without telling the SI Govt they can.. even if the Govt knows about such a move, what can they do about it at that point? Nothing. This is the danger of playing along, getting caught in the web and realizing too late - the more you struggle the more entangled you get. The only time to avoid a crisis like this is at the start by not doing security deals with China when they have made their intent and plans clear. Trade deals, sure. Any security strings will result in tears before bedtime.