ASEAN's First Step Toward Militarization?
Remarkable shift from diplomacy to mil-to-mil coordination
Washington DC 20 SEP 2023
In a truly remarkable development, ASEAN has initiated the organization’s first military exercise among member states. The Association of South East Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has long eschewed military issues, strictly focusing on diplomacy and broad brush ‘security’ dialogue. For these reasons, ASEAN is assuredly not an alliance, but a diplomatic platform for the exchange of views around the region. Jakarta currently holds the rotating chair of ASEAN and is the host city of the association’s secretariat.
As security issues go, the pointy end of the spear is the ARF. Established in 1994, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is a consensus-based platform for security dialogue in the Indopacific, according to the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs. To put it more bluntly, the ARF - the premier security element of ASEAN - is a talking shop. The idea that ASEAN would exercise command and control of military forces in coalition operations is totally anathema to the culture and history of the institution.
Until now, perhaps.
Indonesian Armed Forces Chief, Adm. Yudo Margono, who spoke at the opening ceremony of the inaugural “ASEAN Solidarity Exercise” , announced that future exercises will be held annually and “be expanded” from “joint maritime patrol operations, search and rescue operations, and humanitarian and disaster relief” to “full war drills involving the army, navy and air force”.1
In case China did not get the message, Adm. Yudo Margono continued “Those who carry out any exploration or activities in [the disputed SCS] must not violate state territory. That has been clearly regulated by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.”
Military Times reports that when he was asked whether ASEAN was sending a stronger message against China’s competing territorial claims in the South China Sea, the Admiral replied,
“We have had a firm stance.”2
Militarization of ASEAN?
The door opening to any militarization of ASEAN is unprecedented in the history of the organization and regional diplomacy in general, since the collapse of SEATO in 1977.
China only has itself to blame.
The first signal that China was shifting away from its policy of “peaceful rise” happened at the ARF forum in 2010.
Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi―fuming at the temerity of 12 countries who had raised the contentious South China Sea dispute―stared at his Singaporean counterpart and thundered “China is a big country and other countries are small countries and that is just a fact.”
Remarkably, this deft touch failed to assuage the concerns begining to stir in the region. In the intervening years, regional countries have seen China become more belligerent at the same time the United States failed to match its actions with its rhetoric to “pivot to Asia”.
No one was fooled by the “tourist havens” that transformed into heavily fortified sea forts with long range missiles able to reach all the countries of Asia. Yet America did nothing. This was a failure of deterrence of the first order.
With the forever wars in the sandpit dragging on into painful defeat, it was painfully obvious that America was headed toward neo-isolationism and its allies, great and small, would have to fend for themselves. This trend was accelerated and amplified by the Trump administration that rejected traditional alliances and put a premium on satisfying authoritarian regimes the world over.
As Thirdoffset has documented, from Japan to Australia to the Philippines, and now ASEAN, the region is taking no chances on growing American instability and its threat to the great power’s commitment to a free and open Indopacific. This is assured only until Jan 20, 2025.
The initial militarization of ASEAN, is the equivalent of discovering dead canaries littering the coalmines of regional diplomacy.
ASEAN nations have taken part in naval exercises before with other countries — including both the United States and China — but this week’s drills are the first involving just the bloc and are being read by many as a signal to China.
China and ASEAN signed a nonbinding 2002 accord that called on rival claimant nations to avoid aggressive actions that could spark armed conflicts, including the occupation of barren islets and reefs, but violations have persisted. Despite this, China has come under intense criticism for its militarization of the strategic South China Sea but says it has the right to build on its territories and defend them at all costs.