Strategic Ambiguity
Taiwan and hedging
China Taiwan and the end of Strategic Ambiguity
Washington DC October 2021
[The Biden Administration was sending mixed signals about ending strategic ambiguity over Taiwan].
Not being crystal clear defending Taiwan (TWN) prevented war. Not knowing if there was a trip wire, and where it was, forced PRC into a position of abundant caution. That worked when PRC was engaged in 'peaceful rise'. Now under Xi it has shifted to Gray Zone warfare with "wolf warrior diplomacy" aided and abetted by extensive espionage and economic coercion. Having become a revisionist power, PRC seeks to push boundaries. It uses a 'salami slicing strategy' - to push the boundary far beyond what is acceptable but to do it so incrementally that no one slice would be seen by the international community as justifying a slap from Uncle Sam. Any slap would make us look like the bad guys. In these conditions china gets more than they want and we look bad if we are the good guys. China is mock attacking Taiwan daily. One day they won't turn back. Classic deception stratagem. BIG RED LINE needed. BUT unless we belly up to the bar PRC will calculate we are just words. AFG withdrawal (needed but botched) and likelihood of coup show US weakness.
TWN is a genuine democracy that chose that path for itself. We didn't invade and force it on them at gun point - our favorite way of creating democracies. (note to self - must change this when president). TWN are what liberals hoped the PRC would turn into as its economy improved and middle classes got a greater share of the pie. They got their fingers into the money pie but were strictly kept out of the power pie. This is the genius of the CCP and why it did not go the way of the USSR.
Taiwan is also a natural partner because it has a choke hold on semiconductors. If data is the new oil, chips are the derricks. The PRC has a choke hold on rare earth mineral production (and raw material to a degree). No one country should control REs and chips. So its freedom is in our interests in terms of values, a role model for what the PRC should become and as a strategic country.
Ambiguity has lost is value in Gray Zone warfare. But America really must be ready to risk major conventional war that will probably escalate to an extracontinential nuclear exchange (Hainan for Guam) before cooler heads prevail. If we are weak on the red line then its worse than ambiguity.
Biden and his team have been mostly incompetent in foreign policy execution. If they do not accept the reality of the red line as I have outlined it above - a genuine and complete readiness for war tonight that in all likelihood might escalate to a nuclear exchange (right or wrong the PRC feels strongly about Taiwan for historical and cultural reasons) - and I doubt Biden and co have thought it through that far - then they not only just gave Taiwan to China they destroyed whatever credibility we had left after the debacle in Kabul (we had to leave - but competently). Kissinger and Nixon, Jake Sullivan and Biden are not.