Washington DC 7 April 2025
“There has been a seismic change in the global order . The era of the rules-based globalization and free trade is over”.
Background
Yesterday, Thirdoffset issued a warning to Asia that the global order is collapsing and in its place neo-feudalism is taking over with shocking speed and profound consequences for all. This is not accidental. Trump’s actions domestically and internationally are stunningly beneficial to only one country - Russia. As we explain in the warning, Putin has a unique hold over Trump. But Trump is not alone. Putin has manipulated Xi incredibly effectively as well. We speculate that Putin will attempt to manipulate the US to join the Axis Authoritarianism requiring Xi and Trump to come to a form of accomodation. There is a possibility Putin and Xi pull a “reverse Nixon” on Trump and effectively neuter America. The Asia warning followed a prior warning issued to Europe just days before.
Singapore’s Warning
Today we discovered a video of the Prime Minister of Singapore, Lawrence Wong Shyun Tsai, issuing his own blunt warning about the future that closely parallels our own. Like us, he pulled no punches:
“there has been a seismic change in the global order. The era of the rules-based globalization and free trade is over”.
Singapore has distinguished itself as one of the most clear strategic thinking countries in recent memory. PM Wong sees direct parallels to the 1930s. As do we.
France’s Warning
Singapore is not the only country to ring alarm bells. A week after our warning to Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron issued a similar warning to Europe upon his return from Washington, going so far as to say France can defend against Russia AND America.
I want to believe that the United States will remain at our side, but we must be ready if this is not the case.
Europe has the economic strength, the power and the talent … to take on the United States of America [and] Russia.
We did a full analysis of President Macron’s speech and its implications for global security, including nuclear deterrence, here:
Conclusion
Two things.
First, when world leaders issue unprecedentedly blunt warnings, they have done so after deep consideration. They know the impact of their words on the world and the cost of getting a strategic judgement of this magnitude wrong. We are not so constrained, which is why we frequently see things in advance.
Second, both countries have validated years of warnings since Jan 2021 across all four of our national security substacks that have articulated the threat posed to America by authoritarianism, the parallels to the 1930s, and the threat to the world posed by America should it transition to authoritarianism. We have written about these themes in Civil War II (focusing on the domestic threat of authoritarianism in the US), Thirdoffset (Indopacific security challenges), Unconventional Nuclear Warfare (new ways nuclear weapons will be used) and the Military Innovation Lab (all things innovation in the military sphere).
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