Colby Review announced to decide "if AUKUS should be scrapped"

Washington DC 11 June 2025

I am a huge supporter of the idea that Australia transition to SSNs both for Australia's security and to enhance in-theatre maintenance capacity for the US submarine fleet. AUKUS would have resulted in net more hulls in the water, and net more hulls in-theatre, while defraying US costs.

However, for years I have been warning on these pages that the fragility of alliance politics has pointed to serious weaknesses in AUKUS. In Jan 2022, following the initial announcement, I wrote

Would America ceed its needs and program objectives to keep Australia happy? Under Biden perhaps, but under a real America First Administration?

Now the FT is reporting the launch of a new review of AUKUS, headed by Eldridge Colby, specially designed to evaluate "if it should be scrapped". If that is accurate, it is a pretty clear signal what the review will find.

Legislation passed by Congress last year requires the US president to certify that the transfer of submarines

“will not degrade the United States’ undersea capabilities” and is conditional on the US “making sufficient submarine production and maintenance investments” to meet its own needs.

In his confirmation hearing Colby, the incoming head of policy at the Pentagon, a staunch critic of AUKUS, set himself up to gently drop Australia:

"So if we can produce the attack submarines in sufficient number and sufficient speed, then great. But if we can’t, [supplying Australia] becomes a very difficult problem".

A week later data obtained by Project on Government Oversight (POGO), famous for getting the real numbers, just handed Colby the knife.

"The Navy has taken delivery of only four of the 11 Virginia-class attack subs it was supposed to get between 2019 and 2023, and only seven of 15 DDG-51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers."

Colby would have known those numbers at the time of his confirmation.

Australia has already provided more than $US3 billion ($4.5 billion) to help US shipbuilding. Note - not in payment for an actual vessel. Over all, the AUKUS deal is expected to cost $368b.

From FT
'US defence secretary Pete Hegseth this month urged Canberra to raise spending from 2 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent. In response, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said: “We’ll determine our defence policy.”'

The irony of Secretary Hegseth demanding Australia spend more on defense at the same time as preparing to cancel the most expensive defense procurement program in Australia's history should be lost on no one.

Australia is a big island in a sea of trouble. It is now all but guaranteed to be subless at the most unstable and dangerous time in its history.

FT Article

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If you are interested in more detail, not just on AUKUS abandonment, but an assessment of the Administration’s Asia policy this may be of interest.

ASIA WARNING