Beijing Crack Down

Washington DC

Nov 2021

The Chinese can be arrogant, hubristic and miscalculating just like any impatient power. They also have internal struggles for power.

“What these events tell us is that a monumental change is taking place in China, and that the economic, financial, cultural, and political spheres are undergoing a profound transformation — or, one could say, a profound revolution,” wrote Li Guangman.

Something big is happening in PRC. The question is what is it?
Xi entering the absolute power corrupts absolutely phase? Doubling down on global authoritarian surge? Doubling down on global incompetence in governance? (Own goal? - not just a Washington speciality any more?) Preparation for war?

Washington will jump to the war scenario. I&W is there. Beijing has been pushing hard on Taiwan's door. The US is weak and pulling back from the world. If there is internal strife in the PRC, real or perceived, that's either the worse, or the best, time to strike Taiwan.

Worst because you want internal cohesion when going into a war.
Best because a NLW (Nice Little War) can create that cohesion.
In this context, does it make sense to have a crack down for internal order before launching a NLW? In the PRC authoritarian model these might be perceived as complimentary activities.

However, this maybe a major mistake, hubris, arrogance, and all the things Washington has perfected over the years. We all know how the last Cultural Revolution played out. There is a strong tendency to see the Chinese as 100 year thinkers and never capable of a misstep. They have internal devisions in the population and elites just as we do. There is no doubt a battle going down inside the upper echelons of the CCP over Xi's future. His demand for President for life has triggered counter-responses and these are being worked through the system. His saber rattling might have pushed his critics to come after him.

Chinas policy of slowly salami slicing its way to victory has been working. There is no rush. They will get all they want without war if they drop the belligerency (wolf warriors, hyper nationalism, arrogance etc) and patiently buy global compliance with their vision for world domination.

I suspect the 100th anniversary triggered Xi. He is portraying himself as the new Mao. But his impatience to get ever greater results has already created a domestic opposition from those who agreed to the slow-patient peaceful-rise approach.

If its preparation for invasion of Taiwan, it will be a disaster for global security because the USG is clearly not going to do a thing. If its a crack down for domestic political struggle reasons, the world has just caught a huge break.