ASIA WARNING
Counterintuitively America and China May Join Forces
Washington DC 3 March 2025
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks when decades happen.
Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
Unless America’s Asian allies have a deep grasp of the constitutional crisis underway in the US, they will not understand the threat that confronts them. When America conducts hybrid war against Canada and throws Ukraine under Russia’s tank tracks, why on earth would allies in Asia think they would be treated any differently? It is nonsensical.1
This article will go into significant detail to convince regional thinkers that America is almost completely gone. It is being replaced by an autocracy allied with the other autocracies. Superficial frictions with China will be resolved at least to the point of policy deconfliction between the two dictatorships. As the research will show, there are grounds to believe a major upset in the relationship is coming and it's not what you think.
Like Europe, Asia needs to move very fast to ensure its security. The Chinese understand that the collapse of the constitution in the US gives them new freedom of maneuver. At this point, given the compressed time-frames involved due to this unexpected crisis, nuclear proliferation is inevitable. The global order is moving from a rules based order to neo-feudalism and this strategic assessment will explain the implications of this for security among our treaty allies in Asia.
This is written by a former Australian defense official turned American defense official.
Sovericide
The United States is committing suicide. Never before in world history has a successful hegemon at the peak of its power actively destroyed itself of its own free will.2 Historically, a purposeful forcing function was necessary to cause a state to collapse. These were either applied from outside (war), or inside (revolution). A coup d'état is a proximate issue but it concerns seizing control of the mechanism of state, not its destruction. Sovericide is a new category for a new situation.
The 2024 election was dominated by domestic economic issues. Americans voted in a normal election expecting a routine change in administration. But that is not what they got. Instead, upon taking office, the winning side dropped all pretense of normality and launched multi-vectored attacks on the constitution. They have already captured all branches of government, the media, major corporations, and civil service, wasting no time eliminating all sources of resistance to their agenda, using political, economic, legal and cognitive warfare. Washington feels like it has fallen to an invading army that has all the advantages of electoral legitimacy.
Panic has set in. In just 52 days, the separation of the three branches of government has been effectively nullified, trade wars have been launched, the markets are crashing, the security services and military have been purged of anyone who supports the constitution, nearly 100,000 civil servants have been fired, and unprovoked wars of territorial aggression have been repeatedly threatened against Canada, Denmark and Panama. At first, people assumed the trade wars were just talk. They must now acknowledge threats of invasion of allies should be taken seriously. It is finally dawning on people that Trump 2.0 is a totally different beast to its predecessor. Out of office, it promised to destroy the constitution and now it is delivering.
Europe was the first region to feel the blunt force trauma of this political and economic warfare. Reeling from the surprise attack on Ukraine in the oval office, the NATO alliance has correctly judged America is hostile and is taking substantive measures to transform itself to be able to operate without the US. This includes an extraordinary offer by France to extend its nuclear deterrent across the EU that has been welcomed by the Germans and Poles.3
Intelligence sharing with the US has been curtailed. In a historical vote, Germany changed its constitution to allow it to dramatically enhance military spending. This has been complimented by the EU raising debt limits on defense outlays for all members. Rhetorically, almost every European leader has said either America cannot be trusted or that it is already no longer an ally.
Before it's too late, allied states of Asia must recognize an explosion has happened deep within the San Andreas fault of American political life that has triggered a geopolitical tsunami rapidly gathering force as it spreads west toward their peaceful islands. The first sign may be abandonment of the AUKUS sub deal with Australia or new demands for cash from South Korea. Expect other shocks to follow, including cancellation of exercises, or abrupt troop withdrawals. As will be explained, it is now certain that Trump 2.0 (T2) will turn a blind eye to an assault on Taiwan.
America is adopting an as yet unclear form of autocracy. Its realignment with Russia can no longer be hidden. There are reasons to believe this realignment will not be limited to Russia and extend to the full Axis in some form. Asia watchers and regional statesmen may assume that the balance of power combined with the return to heightened Sino-American enmity will guarantee America will not become a full member of the Axis, and that accordingly, it will honor its Indo-pacific treaty commitments.
This would be a grave error.
Those are all trailing edge indicators from the 2016-2020 era when the Administration was mostly restrained in its abnormality.
Leading edge indicators, such as those described in this assessment, point to a completely new era. These demand a completely new approach. Some concepts in this assessment will be shocking to regional friends who have not kept up with the deluge of anti-constitutional activity in the US. But are they more shocking than seriously threatening Canada with annexation? As will be explained, sovericide has reversed American national interests. America has become a rogue regime. This will impact the national interests of friends and foes alike. Understanding this tectonic shift in global affairs is necessary for national survival.
This assessment will show that the origins of an emergent global dystopia is domestic in origin and is already almost complete in execution. That America's realignment is global in scope and catastrophic in consequence. Asia should preemptively follow Europe in doing what it can to establish new regional security arrangements based on the assumption that China is now unconstrained by American power in the region. For this reason, and because no one can match China ship-for-ship or missile-for-missile, now is the moment for those so inclined to secure the ultimate guarantee for national survival.
SOURCES OF AMERICAN CONDUCT - DOMESTIC FACTORS
General Douglas MacArthur addressed the difficulty of keeping ahead of unimaginable existential threats.
“The history of failure in war can almost be summed up in two words: Too late. Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.”
Few Americans grasp what is happening. The speed, volume, and abnormality of the chaos flooding all the zones of public life is extremely hard to process. This is by design. The program of destruction is aimed at wrecking the entire system in such a way as to render it ineffective in advance of the midterms. Now the only non-violent path back to the constitution is impeachment. But that can only be accomplished by the ruling party who would lose everything if they did the right thing. The party has already made a choice - power at all costs. Even more insidious, they are supported by up to half of the population who have turned their backs on the constitution. America is living in the film Mississippi Burning without a redemptive ending.
Direct warnings by the President that he planned to “terminat[e].. all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution” fell on deaf ears. A violent assault mounted by the political and paramilitary forces of the President on a critical constitutional event, certifying a free and fair election, was a shock. But the idea that it was an attempted coup d'etre was a categorical and analytical bridge too far for all but a handful of experts on extremism. This writer has been sounding warnings since Jan 6 2021. This is what “sane-washing” means. It is the normalization of the abnormal to make it make sense when the reality is too bewildering and disorienting to accept on its own terms.
Consequently, it is vitally important for our allies to understand America is in the midst of sovericide initiated in November 2020 (sic) by an elected government against the constitution and people of the United States.
Our enemies understand this and have failed to conceal their delight.
"If the political will of the two leaders, President Putin and President Trump, is maintained, this path can be quite quick and successful,”
During the 2020-2024 interregnum, the President devoted an extraordinary effort to ensuring that when he retook power (by the ballot or the bullet) he would not repeat past mistakes. Expertise would be replaced by yes-men and they would rush the system with an avalanche of pre-planned radical changes (project 2025) designed to overwhelm and subsume the country before it can react. This is the current state of play. So far it is working splendidly.
The assault on the Constitution
According to historian Timothy Ryback it only took Hitler 53 days to consolidate power after his election. Just 52 days after the inauguration, the legislative and judicial branches of government have capitulated to the executive. In other words, Articles I and III of the US Constitution have submitted to Article II. 'I have an Article II where I have the right to do whatever I want as president'
The Judiciary
The Supreme Court's ‘immunity ruling’ makes all future executive actions legal. Incredibly it empowers the executive to define what is an ‘official’ act. That's quite the transfer of power between branches of government. Assassination of opposition politicians, an example explicitly cited in the Court's decision, is a protected activity. Americans are so destabilized by 8 years of constant chaos this barely caused a ripple.
Justice Sotomayor wrote in her dissent "This new official-acts immunity now 'lies about like a loaded weapon' for any President that wishes to place his own interests, his own political survival, or his own financial gain, above the interests of the Nation," When the president "uses his official powers in any way, under the majority's reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution," she continued. "Orders the Navy's Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune."
The decision overturns the Nuremberg doctrine where the US military can refuse an illegal order. Now there is no such thing. Domestically, this opens the door to invocation of the Insurrection Act, something attempted multiple times in Trump 1.0 (T1) but resisted. Internationally, it guarantees that orders to attack countries that were our allies until 2025 cannot be lawfully refused. Abandonment of the Nuremberg doctrine ties in with the Greenland Doctrine where we have threatened former allies (Denmark, Canada) with unprovoked wars of territorial conquest of the kind popular in Russia.
Any unwelcome lower court orders against executive decrees and other ‘official acts’ will now be appealed based on the immunity precedent. In addition, they are only enforceable by the executive branch rendering any low court sanction not just moot but unenforceable.
Recall that upon returning to power, all prior court cases and rulings against the president and his cronies were reversed. These related to his role in the physical attack on Congress, and the theft of thousands of classified documents, many relating to US vulnerabilities to, and defense against, nuclear attack. All of his cronies were pardoned. Most telling of all, 1500 violent terrorists were pardoned and released. They all owe their freedom to the president and many are no doubt willing to repay the favor with future aggression that will be celebrated as the acts of patriots defending the country against the scourge of democracy, equality and the rule of law.
Lower court judges who continue to live in the fantasy world of judicial independence are getting nasty wake-up calls when they and their families are paraded in conservative media as representing the "TYRANNY of the JUDICIARY" who are “corrupt,” “radical,” “evil”. Naturally the inevitable death threats follow. This intimidation tool has become a hallmark of contemporary American political life. In addition, Judges ruling against the regime are being threatened with impeachment. In the entire history of the United States only 15 judges have been impeached and 8 convicted. In the past month at least 5 have been threatened with impeachment and 11 with death threats. The Attorney General of the United States has demanded any Judge ruling against the government must be removed from office. By the time the system catches up with fast moving T2 developments, more judges can be expected to be impeached if they continue to have the temerity to follow the law.
Here is a textbook example of regime behavior designed to exterminate the separation of powers. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on 14 March 2025.
"You cannot have a low level district court judge filing an injunction to usurp the executive authority of the President of the United States, that is completely absurd,"
Article II section 1 states
The judicial Power of the United States, shall be vested in one supreme Court, and in such inferior Courts as the Congress may from time to time ordain and establish.
Article II section 2 states
The judicial Power shall extend to all Cases, in Law and Equity, arising under this Constitution, the Laws of the United States, and Treaties
So a true reading of the constitution would generate this reply to the propaganda minister “You cannot have the executive usurp the constitutional authority of the judicial branch of government, that is completely absurd". The next “shock” to the system will be when the executive flagrantly ignores the courts. That happened during the course of writing this article. The separation of powers is dead. It can only be enforced by the executive. This is sovericide in action.
The Legislature
The Executive is showing no interest in legislation, choosing instead to rule by decree (Executive Orders) and tweets ordering the legislature to take this or that action. The Republican dominated Legislature is supine in compliance. Leadership live in fear, one tweet away from replacement. Any deviation from White House orders results in systematic condemnation, obligatory death threats, future campaign de-funding and/or expulsion from the party. The separation of powers is dead. This is sovericide in action.
So far, the opposition party has been a deer caught in the headlights. They are dazed and confused. They have given up legislative opportunities to stop the destruction of the constitution. They have not learned from their propaganda savvy opponents that flooding the zone with no holds-barred counter propaganda is the only possible hope. Save, of course, for a great depression. Even in that case, Trump will blame it on the opposition and their silence will confirm their guilt in the hearts and minds of anxious Americans.
The complete failure of the Senate to prevent obviously unqualified hacks, science denying kooks, drunks, heroin addicts, wife-beaters, alleged rapists, and outright Russian intelligence assets from becoming cabinet secretaries, is unprecedented in American history. It is the product of the new system of political control noted above. These clownish figures, including a fake wrestling tycoon (the metaphors write themselves) and a political children's book author, were specially selected because they are weak and easily manipulated. When the wheels really fall off, Trump knows the T2 crew would never dare discuss the 25th Amendment, as briefly happened among T1 cabinet members after January 6.
Due to Republican majorities, the only way all of this spiralling anti-constitutional insanity can be stopped is impeachment of the executive (both the President and Vice President). 52 days in, there are already ample impeachment grounds. This would result in Speaker Johnson becoming President. While unsatisfactory, the reverberations of a joint impeachment and the narrow majority in Congress should ensure Johnson acted cautiously prior to the judgement of the people. This is the sole lifeline back to a constitutional order. It is next to impossible to imagine happening, given the spinelessness in the Cabinet and Legislature, but it is the only hope at this stage.
The Media
If Trump has any true expertise it is stagecraft. He puts all his effort into media manipulation. “The enemy of the people”, a phrase used by other great defenders of democracy like Stalin and Hitler, must be controlled. He has certainly taken to heart their methods. Trump is following this playbook to the letter: “In a coup, you first go for the media: You take over the radio stations, the TV channels, the papers. From there, you can do nearly everything else. You can steadily replace the journalists who would question you with ones who will do your will. You can replace the officials who might challenge you with ones who will serve you.”
America is in the grip of hard core right wing propaganda that official and unofficial investigations have proved is in the pay of Russian intelligence. The Senate report condemning Russian interference in American politics was chaired by Marco Rubio, now Secretary of State. Like so many others, he now does whatever he is told, including vigorously supporting Russia's genocide in Ukraine. Such is the power of right wing propaganda combined with death threats.
Center and Left leaning media is quantitatively insignificant by comparison, with a concomitant degree of influence. Right-wing outlets enjoy “a 7 times” numerical advantage in subscriptions compared to “mainstream media”.4 This chart shows the politics (color) and scale (size) of the media landscape. It is dominated by the right.
“Nine out of the 10 online shows with the largest followings across platforms were right-leaning.”
Fox always claims that it is the highest rating and most trusted ’news’ in the country, at the same time painting itself as a persecuted minority, victim of a vast powerful left wing media universe. It can't be both. They are superbly good at propaganda.
This chart specially addresses individual “influencers” and only 2 near the bottom are not far right wing.
Corporate media has completely capitulated to the regime. They either cheerlead sovericide (Fox etc) or sane-wash patently illegal activities (the rest). Fox paid $787m to maintain what it knew to be a lie, that the 2020 election was 'rigged'. Major outlets like Facebook and the Washington Post have openly admitted they will no longer fact check news or publish opinion pieces critical of the regime.
Trump has learned that he can use lawfare to intimidate the media. ABC just settled a frivolous $15m libel suit brought by Trump that is in effect a bribe to be left alone. CBS will soon follow. Of course this is akin to negotiating with terrorists. It will just encourage them. Its chilling effect with these and other outlets has triggered self-censorship and other forms of anticipatory submission that has gone a long way to ensuring positive coverage of the regime.
All of that is still not enough. The White House took over the coordinating role of the press corps association granting itself the power to decide which outlets get access to the press pool. The White House and the Pentagon have expelled the Associated Press and other respected centrists platforms on flimsy autocratic pretexts (not adopting newspeak ‘Gulf of America’, the regimes relabeling of the Gulf of Mexico), replacing them with far right fringe podcasters and TASS - the Russian ‘news’ agency.
“Trump has appointed 21 Fox News personalities to his staff—many, like Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, at the highest levels of his administration. Government by “reality,” like the TV genre, has no obligation to be factual. It has no obligation to be moral. It has no obligation to be anything at all.”
The bigger issue is America has passed the point of having a common set of agreed facts. Siloed media ensures that right wing people do not see what is happening. It keeps them entertained with stupid culture war garbage while their anti-government government robs them of their constitutional rights and financial support. Some of these antics are getting hard to hide and a fledgling #leavingmaga movement appears to be emerging. Townhalls held by members of Congress in their districts have become very well attended and extremely heated, causing them to be halted altogether under accusations that they are paid political stunts. You can’t pay people to be that mad. The regime is dismissing this feedback because they do not fear the outcome of the 2026 midterms. Ask yourself why.
Security agencies and civil service
As predicted in July 2022 by this author, executive agencies have been purged. Apolitical staff have been replaced with loyalty-tested apparachicks. The focus is on security, intelligence and defense agencies that might prevent, delay or derail the coup d'etre.
Systematic destruction of domestic institutions that uphold the Constitution include the following activities:
The decapitation and gutting of domestic security departments and agencies. The leadership of the DOJ, FBI, DHS and others have been purged and replaced by totally unqualified apparatchiks who come to office with published enemies lists.
The rank and file has been gutted of apolitical officials who failed loyalty tests, who refused to swear allegiance to the leader, or who, though no fault of their own, were involved in the biggest legal case in US history - the 2021 attempted Coup.
A purge of the top echelons of the Department of Defense has already been accomplished. Past Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley has been marked for assassination by Trump for refusing to follow illegal orders - including orders to shoot civilians protesting outside the White House or initiating the Insurrection Act. Not one retired general or military association came to his defense. This indicates the entire national security apparatus has capitulated to the new regime.
Emboldened by the absence of push back, Trump continued down his list, firing the next Chairman, Gen CQ Brown (probably America's most knowledgeable and experienced uniformed leader re: the Indopacific), and other top Admirals and Generals deemed to be likely to resist future illegal orders. They have been replaced by inexperienced junior general officers who gained their new positions in exchange for agreeing to follow orders other’s knew would be illegal.
To further the illegal order agenda, all the DOD's top lawyers (JAGs) and Inspector’s General (IGs) were purged and replaced with loyalists.
In a capstone guarantee of future illegality and war crimes, the Supreme Court abolished the very idea of an illegal order paving the way for using the army against the people and international allies.
Investigations of domestic critics of the regime have begun. These include members of Congress for speeches explaining constitutional rights to citizens. This is happening while Trump signs meaningless executive orders on free speech. It simply does not get more Orewellian than that.
There is a weekly report on substack that tries to keep track with all of the attacks on the IC. Pick any week at random and it's easy to feel overwhelmed by the truly abnormal activities reported.
The hollowing out of government agencies and social support programs is explicitly designed to “traumatize” civil servants and the public. So said the head of Project 2025 and now the Director of OMB
It has been very successful. No civil servant dares test the system. The threat posed by the new OMB director led Senator Brian Schatz of Hawaii to warn “he is the architect of the dismantling of our federal government”.
Ignoring judicial orders against the executive that can only be enforced by the executive. Threatening any federal judge who rules against the regime with impeachment.
The spending authority of the legislature is being ignored. Rendering constitutional checks and balances inoperative. Wisconsin senator Tammy Baldwin observed that Trump intends to “defy Congress and take control of federal funding decisions that are constitutionally vested in the legislative branch”. This prediction has been proven accurate across the board.
Congressional power vested in the constitution has been replaced with the direct rule of an oligarch. This has not even been attempted in Russia. Elon Musk, with $38 billion tied up in government contracts, has been granted unlimited authority over government agencies, from hiring and firing powers, to tax and spending powers. The 12 government departments and agencies investigating Musk and his businesses all dropped their cases. Autocracy rarely gets more explicit than that.
Granting unauthorized access to the most sensitive systems in the Treasury and IRS, exposing private data to an unelected and unauthorized oligarch. Musk now has access to tax records of everyone, including politicians, commercial competitors, and opponents. These files also contain all the business contracts and relationships between the US Government and its allies. All of this is completely illegal and unchecked.
These and other radical attacks on the status quo have already achieved extensive destruction of the US Constitution.
The New Regime
Despite being returned to power by election, the extraordinary changes noted above, and many more excluded for space reasons, qualify Trump 2.0 to be characterized as a regime.
A regime is distinguished from a government in that it refers more broadly to the entire structure of power and authority within a state, including not just the formal institutions of government, but also the informal networks, social norms, and power dynamics that shape the political and social landscape.
The new regime accords with most definitions and characteristics of regimes including
• Authoritarian tendencies
• Concentration of power
• Control of institutions
• Lack of transparency
• Suppression of dissent
• Disruption of norms.
• Use of violence or intimidation to maintain power and silence opposition.
• A strong emphasis on nationalism, often accompanied by a sense of superiority and
• A rejection of international norms and institutions
Importantly for international partners trying to grasp what is happening in America it is noteworthy that the Trump regime has abandoned the following international treaties and agreements.
• The Paris Climate Agreement
• The Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA)
• The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF)
• The UN Human Rights Council
• The World Health Organization (WHO)
• The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
• The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
• The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)
• The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has been abandoned by Trump in the latest round of trade wars.
• The Open Skies Treaty
Spectacularly breaking with NATO and the prospect of ignoring or diminishing security treaties with allies in Asia is of a piece with these actions.
These are all ‘canaries in the alliance coal mine’.
Strategic Surprise
Conventional thinking has it that strategic surprise happens in the wake of an intelligence failure. The problem is intelligence failures are misunderstood. They occur mostly due to analytical biases and groupthink, not a failure to collect or analyse information. Recall the famous “failure of imagination” cited by the 9/11 Report. The US Intelligence Community (IC) had reports and assessments of the terrorists in the country, their activities, external connections, and flight training, including reported suspicions about their disinterest in learning how to land. America had all of that intelligence and yet we were surprised.
The flip side of an intelligence failure is deception. Enemies use known biases in the target population, media, military, or government, to mislead them into reinforcing their belief in conspiracy theories or other self-defeating lies. This false belief can then be activated to cause the target to act against their national interest.
Using this rubric, the domestic crisis in America described above is a strategic surprise of the first order that included a comprehensive Russian deception campaign using psychometric manipulation of the US population via social media and right wing cable tv outlets. Just yesterday a second Facebook executive turned whistleblower admitted to coordinating propaganda with the regime. Despite being well documented, too few Americans understand they are swamped in cognitive warfare.5
American social media systems are not available in Russia or China. They know the danger they pose to their regimes.
The strategic surprise of T2 switching sides to the Axis powers is therefore not a surprise at all. It is a combination of factors, including a long-standing multifaceted Russian deception program, admiration of Putin as a strongman, as well as Trump's natural inclinations toward autocracy. It was born out of Trump's experience running a family business (unanswerable to anyone), his ignorance of the constitution and the limits it placed on his presidential power, and his desire for retribution against a system he feels ignored him when in office, prevented him from winning reelection, and turned on him in defeat. Those are a lot of crosses to bear for an emotional cripple. Equally, surviving an assassin and winning reelection despite being an adjudicated rapist, fraudster, and charged with multiple crimes including espionage and attempting a coup is all he needs to believe God is on his side and he can never lose.
Putin-Trump Nexus
If you are the leader of a country in Asia trying to understand why America is suddenly so partial to its long standing existential foe and questioning whether this preferential treatment will be extended to China, it will behoove you to examine a quick snapshot of the nexus between Trump and Putin. Armed with these insights it is possible to see the future is being decided as much in Moscow as Washington. Factoring in the Moscow-Beijing limitless friendship then adds a new dimension to the picture in Asia.
The Putin-Trump Nexus is a classic groupthink intelligence failure. It has been clearly visible for decades but it remains largely unseen.
Trump's links to Russia pre-date Putin. KGB HUMINT operations had always cast a wide net to 'prominent' people from all walks of life who came within their orbit. Scatter-shot is an inefficient way of generating leads but, by God, did it pay off in this case.
Trump first went to Russia with his Czech wife, when the Iron Curtain was strong as ever. The story goes that the KGB started stroking his ego telling him to run for office during that visit. Whether or not that happened we do know that on his return, he took a sudden unexpected interest in foreign policy. On September 2, 1987, he published "an open letter from Donald J. Trump - To The American People" -- "on why America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.”
For a detailed exploration of the subsequent history from that point until recently, see The Putin-Trump Nexus, an investigation conducted by one of our sister publications. It details a story of extraordinary coincidences from Russian mobsters running a crime syndicate from the unit below Donald's in Trump tower to Paul Manafort and Roger Stone working for Russian puppet governments, Trump getting rejected by Wall St and gaining funding at the last moment from Russia's top money laundering bank. If Trump was not a Russian mark, there are a hell of a lot of coincidences.
Here is a brief summary of the most recent critical events in the relationship, any one point below would have destroyed any other American presidency:
Trump's first impeachment was a result of his bizarre pressure campaign against President Zelenskyy to manufacture dirt on President Biden's son Hunter. Trump is a self confessed vengeance seeker. His approach to Ukraine starts and ends with his impeachment.
Trump said Putin did “an amazing job of taking the mantle” when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. During the 2016 presidential campaign, he said it was OK if Russia kept Ukrainian territory. He repeated a Kremlin talking point, saying, “The people of Crimea, from what I’ve heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were.”
On the outbreak of the full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022, Trump could not contain his delight: “Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine.. as independent. ‘Oh, that’s wonderful. I said, ‘This is genius,’”
During the 2024 election, Trump told Putin he would let the Russian dictator “do whatever the hell he wants” in Europe.
The level of NATO defense spending has always been a smoke screen. When allies reached 2%, Trump upped it to 5%. It's not about spending. It is simply a weapon with which to beat allies that obscures the reality of his support for Russia. (Nor BTW is GDP a relevant indicator of military effectiveness exposing the trope for the Russian propaganda garbage that it is).
The President of the United States said the democratically elected President of Ukraine is a dictator. More Russian propaganda.
Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war. This is absurd Russian propaganda.
On the third anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, America voted with Russia, Belarus, Iran, and North Korea in the UN against a resolution condemning Russia's invasion. Even the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) thought that vote went too far and abstained.
On his promise to deliver for Putin: “So many people at the higher ends of intelligence loved my press conference performance in Helsinki” a ridiculous lie and the opposite of the reaction at home and abroad. “Putin and I discussed many important subjects at our earlier meeting. We got along well… Big results will come!”
We saw those big results on Friday, February 28, 2025. On that day, in the Oval Office, before the world, America provided vital support to a wanted war criminal engaged in an unprovoked war of territorial conquest and genocide. America conducted a surprise attack against a democratically elected ally fighting for survival.
In the oval office Trump, yelling, berated Zelenskiy for “gambling with world war three” then praised Russia as a delight with whom to deal. Then he cut vital intelligence and logistic support, which paved the way for a massive Russian assault on civilians. Trump had direct blood on his hands and his response? It is “what anybody would do”..
Unsurprisingly the Kremlin hailed these actions as a victory.
On 4 March, in a joint session of Congress, Trump AGAIN threatened NATO ally Denmark that America will take Greenland "one way or the other.”
How anyone reading this history thinks Trump will be an unbiased peace broker defies logic.
Trump is the world's most prolific public hater. His attacks on people, up to 15 a day, for years has been well documented.6 He rarely praises anyone more than once, including his own children. Yet he never once criticized Putin. Instead, he has praised him more than 30 times. This is in line with Trump's general admiration for dictators that is also well documented.7
He was praising Xi Jinping for the first few months of the pandemic, at the same time as engaging in a trade war. The praise only changed to criticism when China retaliated. At which point Trump's disastrous mismanagement of the pandemic needed a scapegoat and “kung-flu” and “China-virus” were born.
The Dependence is Mutual
In the past decade, Trump and Putin have shared a deepening interdependency. In the early days, having a loud, brash, cash-strapped, easily manipulated mouthpiece in the New York media scene was a ‘nice to have’. From 2015 onwards, the value to Russia of that asset becoming President needs no further explanation. Putin used social media psyops to assist in Trump's election. This had obvious mutual benefits, and added an obligation on Trump towards Putin.
The second time around, in 2024, the interdependence had become a matter of life and death. As they both massively blundered, it became the two of them against the democratic world.
Trump needed Putin to cheat death in prison. Putin needed Trump to cheat death for his strategic miscalculations.
Trump is emotional, full of grievance, impulsive, greedy, gluttonous, depraved, and easily manipulated. He has a long association with Russia and as we have seen, has always admired its dictator. Putin, cold and calculating, has no interest in such sentimentality. However, it is to his advantage that Trump believes their shared survival experience has forged a special bond between the two. “Let me tell you, Putin went through a hell of a lot with me”.
Trump Missed Opportunity 1
Now that Trump is home safe, he has no further use for Putin. If he was shrewd, Trump could have ignored his obligations to Putin and thrown him under the bus over Ukraine. Trump could force Putin to the negotiation table on bad terms, as he is currently doing to Ukraine. This would have made Trump a global hero, utterly wrongfooted his critics, and earned him the thing he covets most right now, the Nobel Peace Prize. Instead, he chose loyalty to the weak and desperate Russian. Giving up this extraordinary opportunity tells us a lot about the psychology, statesmanship, intelligence, vision and political savvy of Donald J Trump.
Trump and Putin now share one thing in common. It is impossible to overstate the super-empowerment that both now feel, having cheated the hangman against all odds and come out on top. Individually, and together, they are more powerful, untouchable and unrestricted than ever. That is a platform from which the Russian dictator can continue to get what he wants from the American performer.
The super-empowerment of the world’s oldest and newest autocrats is a truly terrifying prospect to anyone used to the stable and predictable flows of democracy, free trade, and the rules based order. Everything is about to abruptly change.
How does China fit in?
Of greatest import to American treaty allies in Asia, the Russo-American alliance does not address the outlier issue of the PRC. Putin's new alliance with Trump works against China's interests. This is compounded by Trump's antipathy toward China, his new trade war with Beijing and use of China as a scapegoat among domestic audiences - “kung-flu'”.
Significantly, perhaps the only bipartisan agreement left in US politics is: “China: BAD!” Everyone in Congress is a China hawk. This reflects a deeply unfavorable view of China among the US public.
The crux of the issue is this:
Will America betray its security treaty partners in Asia the same way it has betrayed NATO?
If the above factors all hold, they guarantee America will never join the Axis and as such America's allies in Asia will continue to be protected from China.
Last time, Trump initiated a trade war (that America lost).8 He blamed China for using a biological weapon against the world (covid). And the US banned or threatened Chinese companies from operating in the US due to intelligence concerns (Huawei, Tik Tok).
Just 52 days into the new Trump Administration, China is already threatening ‘war’ with America in response to new unprovoked Trump attacks:
If war is what the U.S. wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.
It is hard to see how Xi and Trump can come together in the face of so much friction and ill will.
Where is China?
Putin has adeptly manipulated the other two leaders to give himself a unique position of advantage. The Putin-Trump Nexus is unique. Xi Jinping holds no special sway over Trump beyond his strongman status. Curiously, Xi is also in an unusual relationship with Putin.
Strategically, the PRC has gained tremendous power over Russia. With each miscalculation and unforced error, Putin's military, finance, economy, and society, has seeded power to China. By any measure, China is Russia's master.9
Yet China does not appear to be seeking advantage to the degree it could. It is receiving cheap Russian black market oil that helps defray inflationary pressures. But that is small beer by comparison to what it could be getting out of the relationship. Presumably, a secret compact has been made that Russia will support China when it invades Taiwan. But Russia does not need a pact for that. It would do it anyway, as it disadvantages the US and will take focus off the war in Ukraine.
So the PRC could be doing a lot more. But it is not. The Chinese are not known for being poor negotiators. What might be going on? The kind of big strategic play Thirdoffset has in mind is working with Russia to shift the global reserve currency away from the US dollar.10 China has been working with the BRICs to dump the dollar for some time now. So far they have helped to drive a wedge into this issue. In Q1 2023 the share of global debt in $USD was 59% down from 70% in 1999. All sorts of factors are involved, like sanctions of bad guys, but China has been playing in this space. If the USD loses primacy it would destroy America. However, it would also generate a great deal of blowback on the world and China in particular. They hold a lot of US debt that would have to be written off. They would also lose their #1 market. Might they see US destruction as worth it? Unlikely, especially as their economy is so shaky. However, getting the USD closer to the edge puts America in check.
If that is not on the cards, Xi appears to have been played by Putin. Sucked into his failed 3 day war with all its negative consequences, and again under attack from Trump in a new trade war.
Or could something else be in play that has not yet been revealed?
The Russia-China-US triangle has shifted over time as different combinations arose to balance the outlier. From 1949 until the 1960s, the two communist powers balanced America. The Sino-Soviet split provided an opportunity for an opening to China. Kissinger and Nixon offered the One China policy as enticement to bring China over to their side. Recognition of the PRC and severing ties with Taiwan followed under Carter. Following the end of communism in Europe, the Chinese grew concerned about the contagion and worked with their old friends as a hedge. The relationship grew until it was sealed with the “friendship without limits” pact just before Russia's 3 day war to seize Kiev.
That history shows the Chinese have been a pragmatic free agent moving where their interests are best served. Xi does not seem to be as agile as his predecessors. He is getting played by Putin and falling into another stupid trade war with Trump.
Trump Missed Opportunity 2
Yet again we see that Trump lost a massive strategic opportunity. His blind obedience to Putin stood in the way of emulating his hero, Richard Nixon. Dumping Putin, ending the war in Ukraine, and a new opening to China, is the kind of move that, like Nixon, only Trump could have made.
The problem is Trump is not ‘unpredictable’ or ‘playing 3D’ chess as so many chose to believe.
The "3D Chess Paradox"
The "3D Chess Paradox" is a cognitive phenomenon wherein people, faced with seemingly irrational or nonsensical situations or ideas, mistakenly ascribe hidden brilliance, strategic depth, and multidimensional thinking to them. This illusion, which defies Occam's Razor—the principle that the simplest explanation is often the most likely one—arises from a complex interplay of cognitive biases, confirmation bias, and the belief that something cannot be as straightforwardly stupid as it appears. Individuals caught in this web of perception may find themselves attributing grand strategies and masterful moves to a series of blunders and miscalculations. The 3D Chess Mirage serves as a cautionary reminder that, in many cases, a spade is just a spade, and the supposed three-dimensional chess game may be nothing more than an elaborate figment of the imagination, arising from a desire to see genius where there is none.11
People entertain this fantasy because no one believes Trump could possibly be as stupid as he acts. The reality is as uncomplicated as the fool you see every day. He is a master of television stagecraft “this will make good television”. Nothing else. He has feet of Russian clay. This insight is the key to understanding how things are going to unfold for the world in the coming year.
The essential factor is Russia is weak and bitterly close to collapse. It is vulnerable to both US and/or Chinese pressure. Consequently, suborning America without violence, using incredibly cheap cognitive warfare, has been a strategic masterpiece with few parallels in world history. Not only does it make America a vassal state, it saves Putin from assassination for his failed war, and insulates Russia from any pressure China might care to exercise against its interests.
Reverse Nixon
What if it does not end there? What if Putin and Xi are planning a “Reverse Nixon” against Trump?
Instead of Trump opening to China, Putin and Xi open America to the Axis. They achieve this by playing on Trump's ‘ego without limits’, tricking him into thinking it is all his idea.
Xi knows that Russia’s subordination of America rebalances China's power over Russia back towards Moscow. Especially given the enmity and intensified friction between the US and China. Making the US a full member of the Axis, would totally recast the global order in both Russia and China's interests at the expense of America and its global system of alliances. Sure this puts Putin in the driving seat, but he has been there all along.
China will welcome America into the Axis because they benefit more from the rebalance than continued bilateral strife. For China, this removes ‘the America problem’ and gives China more say over Washington than it would otherwise have. It also recaptures some of China's lost power over Russia given the new US-Russian alliance. This arrangement would also fundamentally weaken the remainder of the free world, making them much easier to pick off one-by-one - a cornerstone of Chinese mercantilist diplomacy (belt and road) and politico-economic warfare strategies (see sino-Australian relations for the past 10 years). This is a map of relationships and influence as much as commercial activity.
A Reverse Nixon would also compliment, enhance and advance American sovericide. Trump would be stronger than ever, adored by the public as a visionary and great hero. Those who might seek to restore America to its constitution would be set back a generation.
A Reverse Nixon would be ridiculously easy to pull-off. All they have to do is make Trump think it is all his brilliant idea and offer him a showy ‘grand bargain’ mega-summit. The only criteria is it has to be better TV than Nixon's trip. A multi-day televised spectacular with all the stagecraft they can bring to bear: military parades in Tiananmen Square, huge billboards of Trump' face in the Chinese style, swapping ‘big beautiful’ oversized leather binders at a signing ceremony in the forbidden city, a grand banquet with a 5 hour Trump oration - the works! He thought meeting Kim Jong Un in a hotel in Singapore was glorious. This would be stratospheric in comparison.
Trump thinks stagecraft is statecraft. He can not tell the difference. Let him cover himself in PR glory. It is all he understands and cares about anyway. In exchange, America will cut the tariffs and conduct its foreign policy in alignment with the interests of the Axis even if its declaratory policy points in other directions from time to time for the purposes of domestic deception. Putin's grip on Trump tightens, Xi gains a degree of influence over Trump, rebalances with Moscow, and gets rid of the annoying trade war. American power is shifted fully and irreversibly into the Axis camp with all that would entail for the global order.
Neo-Feudalism
The balance of power is upstream from the global order. What would American sovericide combined with a Reverse Nixon look like for the global order? Domestically, sovericide represents a transition from the rule of law to the rule of one. Internationally, an incomplete but rapidly unfolding shift to sovericide reduces US foreign policy to whim - weighted in Russia's favor. Without, but especially with, a reverse Nixon, sovericide will result in a global imbalance of power in favor of autocracy for the first time since perhaps the 17th Century.12
A global order based on autocracy will be radically different from what the world has experienced since 1945.
Out with rules and institutions. In with neo-anarchy and Machtpolitik.13
Out with democracy and free trade. In with autocracy and mercantilism.
Out with the nuclear taboo. In with nuclear proliferation, accident, and use.
Collectively, this unprecedented development might be imperfectly described as neo-feudalism.14
These ideas have been tried before and resulted in cataclysmic wars. There is no reason to believe the pattern will be any different this time. A stubborn willful ignorance of history is yet again going to cost millions of innocent lives.
Implications of Neo-Feudalism for Asian Security
Neo-feudalism cannot be contained to just one hemisphere. However, the winds of change have not yet reached Asia. This writer is deeply concerned that America's treaty partners, Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand, might be lulled into a false sense of security. As the foregoing suggests, it would be a mistake to believe radical departures from long-standing US foreign and defense policies that have recently rocked Europe to its foundations, will be limited to that continent. Further, it is dangerous to assume that Sino-American enmity, and traditional formulations of the balance of power, will ensure Asia's experience will be different to that of Europe.
The upshot is America's Asian allies are entering a period of extreme danger.15
They are advised to assume that under T2, inconsistent, impulsive, passive-aggressive America has deteriorated way past prior low points.
At a minimum, the US will adopt an openly hostile posture: demanding money, threatening allies, withdrawing US forces, eliminating tripwires and deterrents, and using arms contracts (AUKUS submarines, F-35s, long range missile technology, starlink) to leverage concessions from friends, then failing to deliver, in the service of enemies.16
More likely, America, already allied with Russia, will fall for the reverse Nixon stratagem and fully embrace authoritarianism by joining the Axis. This will give China unrestricted power in the region. Even if the US does not go all in, American first will likely ensure it does not engage in significant material support of allies under threat or attack by China. The resulting neo-feudalism, likely based on spheres of influence, will place the remaining democracies in an incredibly tenuous position. At which point the nuclear genie will be released from its bottle. India will also play a pivotal role. It could go either way. It may decide fighting the imbalance of power - with weak, geographically dispersed allies like Europe and what ThirdOffset calls the “West’s Strays” (Japan, Korea, Singapore, Australia & NZ - hereafter ‘Strays') - is a losing proposition.
How Asia is different
Asia and Europe share essentially the same security dilemma. In both cases, a large, powerful, nuclear armed, brutal totalitarian dictatorship, stalks the region. In both cases, the only serious check on the regional leviathan has been America in association with local democracies. India is the outlier in Asia.
Compared to Europe, Asia is at a distinct disadvantage to cope with a radical global realignment. After WWII Europe created a quasi-federal government structure for the express purpose of preventing a future war. The EU provides the region with a robust common political, financial, economic and legal architecture. NATO is the EU's military backstop. It provides a long standing, battle tested, multilateral platform to defend itself. While the US has played a central role, NATO can survive without America.
In the wake of Trump's betrayal of Ukraine, European leaders are moving very quickly to make a US-Free NATO (FNATO) ready for war. NATO used to be about keeping the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down. FNATO has changed its purpose to keeping the Russians out, Germans up, and Americans down.
Berlin has changed its constitution to massively increase defense spending. It's hard to overstate the political significance of this move. The hyperinflation of the Weimar years and what followed insured strict limits on borrowing - under 1% of GDP. That's gone. Germany has committed to $1T worth of spending. In other words, Trump and Russia have been judged as a greater danger than the risk of a remilitarised Germany - even as the far right rises in popularity.
Paris has reiterated earlier offers to extend its deterrent over the rest of Europe. So far, Warsaw and Berlin have indicated an interest in basing French air launched hypersonic nuclear missiles on their soil. It is hoped by this author that Britain follows France in extending its deterrent to Europe and Canada as a protection against American invasion. These are astonishing developments that have unfolded in a matter of days. Europe has met them with bold policy moves.17
Nothing like NATO or the EU exists in Asia. The architecture and habitual relationships that exist in these institutions are almost non-existent. Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Australia and New Zealand each have bi-lateral security treaties with the US. For decades all regional diplomacy and security went through Washington in what was called a ‘’hub and spokes” system. This has only started to change in the last decade. China's rapid rise and increasingly belligerent diplomacy, pre-Trump doubts about America's reliability, and fading memories of WWII, have caused regional countries to branch out with fledgling, limited and non-binding agreements among themselves. This is a welcome development but when decades happen in weeks they are insufficient.
Over-reliance on America and failure to develop a comprehensive economic, political, and military architecture is a distinct mis-match to the moment. By allowing themselves to become dependent on America, our Asian allies forgot the first rule of international relations.
"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow.”
As a consequence, America's already declining commitment to Indopacific regional security is poised for profound upheaval. As the Europeans have just discovered, it is now a matter of survival for alliance states in Asia to move swiftly to radically enhance their own defense.
As this author has been predicting for years, nuclear proliferation in Asia is inevitable. Previously this was because of the scale and reach of the China threat. Now American unreliability and the extraordinary possibility of an American threat (if things keep on the current trajectory) make it all but certain that those contemplating the bomb will move quickly to obtain the ultimate guarantee of sovereignty. Thirdofset expects Korea, Japan and Australia as the most likely candidates in order of enthusiasm for the idea.
At least one thing should be clear by now. America will not honor its regional commitments whether or not it forges closer ties with China.
Trump Doctrine
The Ukrainians are not the first friends or allies to be betrayed. Trump's actions toward them seems new and shocking. In fact, it's perfectly consistent with his past (and future) conduct. Unlike the rest of the diplomatic world, Trump makes no distinction between treaty partners and anyone else. As we saw above, not only is he threatening allies and waging trade war, he is ignoring the rule of law. A treaty means nothing to him and it's not like he will wait for the Senate to formally undo the terms of our obligations. That would only matter if the separation of powers was still in effect.
Let's do a quick review of the Trump Doctrine then extrapolate for future conduct in the region.
North Korea
Simply meeting a US President gave North Korea the international legitimacy it has craved for decades. The freebies did not end there. After the failed ‘summit’, Trump gave Kim cessation of US-Korean military exercises. A third gift followed when Trump publicly humiliated South Korean President Moon Jae-In. Losing face is a particularly intense insult in Asian cultures. For Trump, it is the standard playbook for allies - insult and demand. ‘Pay up or else the US will withdraw its troops’.
As usual, America did not involve relevant allies in any part of these counterproductive, anti-democratic, regionally destabilizing schemes. In return, Kim intensified his nuclear and missile programs, building a bigger ICBM than the one that triggered the crisis that led to the talks in the first place. It should be expected that Trump will soon return to pressuring South Korea while writing love letters to Kim.
The Kurds
America's only consistently reliable and effective allies in the Middle East, the Kurds, were sold out to the Turkish autocrat and slaughtered. This was a seriously shameful betrayal of a battle buddy. Barely any Americans know it happened. Or care. Allies watched very carefully.
The Taliban
America ‘negotiated’ with the Taliban. In the Trumpian tradition, this means giving an enemy everything it wants before discussions even begin. In this case the US released 5000 terrorists from prison, and planned to reward them with a weekend at Camp David.18 This masterstroke of American diplomacy was rewarded with an untenable withdrawal timeline that literally blew up in our face. Some strategists asked if this was a deliberate set-up of Biden by Trump. Of course our Afghan ally was not consulted in any of this. Nor were any other allies who had initiated article 5 of the NATO treaty coming to our aid. Biden completely botched the withdrawal. There is no excuse for that failure but Trump’s diplomacy setting the context was a major contributing factor.
Allies
Sound familiar? Exactly the same is happening to Ukraine right now. The record is conclusive that 3D chess is not in play here. Rather, refusal to consult with allies and an inexplicable bias toward enemy dictatorships is the only consistent theme.
Accordingly, if repetition reflects doctrine, it can be assessed that the Trump Doctrine consists of repeated betrayal of allies and fawning over foes in all theatres of operations.
The First Test Case - Taiwan
A state of global hybrid war has existed for some years between the Axis and democracies. Russia transitioned to a shooting war in Ukraine before China was ready to attack Taiwan. The wait will soon be over. Xi told the PLA to be ready by 2027. That was before America switched sides in Europe and issued the Greenland doctrine saying wars of conquest are a great idea. The global chaos and uncertainty that shock has caused, creates propitious conditions for China's planned aggression, regardless of the state of Sino-American relations.
It is already clear Trump sees no advantage to America in assisting the defense of Taiwan. Going to war with China, who is in a friendship without limits with Russia, Trump's forever ally, is pregnant with downside. That is before practical calculations regarding geography and military factors are added into the strategic equation. In Trump's calculus there is nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Hiding behind 'strategic ambiguity' in the past few weeks, Trump has already ducked and weaved when asked about any obligations America might feel towards the democratic island in China's immediate sphere of influence. Keen observers will note that Trump is not a big defender of democracy.
If he doesn't care about democracy in America, don't expect him to get all excited about democracy on a hard to reach island surrounded by Chinese missiles and populated by people he is incapable of seeing as different to mainlanders.
Physical access to Taiwan requires deep penetration into China's innermost zone of denial that enjoys saturation coverage by interlocking fields of long range fire from air, land and sea out to the second island chain. Wargames continue to prove that any US attempt at forcible entry operations will result in the loss of at least one carrier, multiple destroyers, countless aircraft and thousands of troops.
On top of devastating losses, nuclear escalation risks abound in attempting to support the embattled island. All of that for people Trump sees as already part of China (One China policy)?
Trump's Taiwan policy was made pretty clear in the election campaign. Even he can read a map:
"Taiwan is 9,500 miles away,” he said, “it's 68 miles away from China.”
He neglected to add that a moat makes things harder for China but the Pacific Ocean makes things impossible for the US and regional allies. Without American support, Taiwan's porcupine strategy might hold off the PLA for longer than many expect. It depends how many weapons they have stockpiled. The critical ingredient is Taiwanese will. Despite best efforts, Thirdoffset has been unable to get a grip on that critical issue. It made all the difference in Ukraine. However, resupply by a land surrounded by allies and friends is a completely different proposition to resupply of an island surrounded by its enemy and far from friends. Taiwan semiconductor's announcement of $100bn investment in chip manufacturing in the US, just gave up the one thing they could have offered Trump to protect them. Not that it would have mattered.
Greenland Doctrine
Trump's Greenland Doctrine is a gift to Xi. China can use it as a justification for aggression towards Taiwan. America has no claim on Greenland and yet it continues to threaten war with NATO ally Denmark. The same applies to the escalating Trump threats against NATO ally and super polite and friendly next door neighbor Canada. T2 is unrestricted. These are serious threats to global security that would be enhanced by joining the Axis. It also accords with the Yalta 2.0 theory - the ‘spheres of influence’ / global carve up. Evidentially these ideas are coming from techbro extremists who want to secure access to rare earth minerals for their businesses. Like Canada, Denmark or Ukraine are unwilling to trade with America? It's insane. But this is the world we live in now.
Unlike the US and Greenland, the PRC does have a claim on Taiwan to the extent that we all agree on the One China policy.19
Xi can now quote Trump in justifying action in accordance with Trump's stated view on the use of force. Alternatively, either as a propaganda smoke screen or in the unlikely event of continued genuine friction with America, Xi could site a strategic need to seize Taiwan “to protect it”, and by extension, the mainland, from the 'madman Trump who is threatening the world with unwarranted geostrategic land grabs’.
The Second Test Case - Australia
Despite globalization, Australia remains splendidly isolated from the rest of the world. The ”tyranny of distance” is a geographical reality that has contributed to a state of mind in “the lucky country”. When you live there you are conscious of an outside world but it feels too far away to matter. The beach, the pub, sunburn and sport dominate middle class life. It is idyllically boring.
For a young man interested in international relations who had a taste of Washington DC at the top of its game after winning the cold war, Australia seemed parochial and suburban. Like so many authors, this one rushed off to live in Europe and America in search of adventure and a role in the center of things. Like all the others, with age came the realization that the simple pleasures in life, enjoyed on an island far from the world’s cares, with roiling surf, warm sand, and the best scuba diving in the world, possibly wasn't all that bad after all.
Perhaps for appearances as much as anything else, Australia has a military, a very good one, but it has never really been expected that it will be used at home. Over the last century and a half, a handful of strategically minded Australians have dispatched that force all over the world to help friends in the hope that if the day ever came, when the incredible landscape girt by sea would need to be protected, great and powerful friends would return the favor and help out.20
In 1939 the question was not very complicated. PM Menzies senatorially intoned “Great Britain has declared war [on Germany], and that, as a result, Australia is also at war."21
The entire army was sent to the Middle East. It had to be rushed back to actually defend the country once the Japanese decided they needed Dutch East Indian oil in the same way Donald Trump has decided he needs Danish rare earth minerals…
The fall of “impregnable” Singapore was the strategic shock of that age. The PM of the day dumped Britain and begged America for help. American sovericide is the modern day equivalent of the fall of Singapore and as will be demonstrated, the Australians will again be caught completely by surprise. For someone who cares about the country and its people, it is heartbreaking to watch knowing how it is going to end.
For the first time since 1942, the complicated and frustrating outside world is again trying to intrude into the sunkissed idyll in unwelcome ways. This is happening at a very inconvenient time. At exactly the moment a Chinese navy task force outraged the sunbathers, circumnavigating their pacified island for the first time, Australia's ace in the hole, for whom it has expectantly spent much butter, gold, and blood in security down payment, has decided to commit sovericide.
Before all this happened, Australia decided to give America a lot of money. This was to help shipbuilders in Connecticut and Virginia clear the backlog of submarines they had failed to deliver, not due to lack of funds but lack of skilled labor (and some supply chain issues that were resolved but will return now that tariffs will make items like steel more expensive). How the Australian cash would fix skilled labor shortages was never clarified but it was the sort of thing friends did for one another. The general idea was Australia would get a couple of subs along the way as the production line became more productive.
This was a great idea because as the seething Chinese communist hordes were the enemy, whether an American sub was driven by a bloke or a yank, they would be in the same waters aimed at the same baddies. Tossing a couple to Australia at the same time as building a maintenance facility in-theatre (where Australia is conveniently located) - would actually increase the number of overall hulls in the water aimed at the red menace.22
However there is a problem. Sovericide Americans really like money. But they don't really like allies. This is going to turn out to be a bit of a sticking point.
Submarines are uniquely suited to all that blue on the map and against the gray floating guns sent to rudely harass the sunbathers by the angry Chicoms. Because subs cannot be easily seen in a sky overflowing with cameras, they are not something a modern maritime country can do without. However it is decidedly looking like once all the money has been handed over, the sovericidists will decide now is not a good time to be “giving away” vital national security assets to sunbathing freeloaders who drink too much beer and drive on the wrong side of the road. “America First”. It's kinda in the name.
Some of America's sunburnt cousins are becoming alive to the brewing tension. However, their solution is to just drive on, coughing up the dough, and rely on the powerful sense of obligation backed by shame the sovericidists will feel if they stab their mates in the back. Perhaps like the French felt when Australia cancelled the contract for French subs out of the blue. Ahem…. The other big issue with this foolproof plan is that the sovericidists are not well known for feeling shame.
You can prove their leader is a court adjudicated rapist who was made a felon in a fraud case. You can show videos of him spending an awful lot of time with the world’s most notorious child rapist. You can show video of him proudly explaining how he sexually assaults women and always gets away with it. You can even show video of him on a television panel with women interviewers telling them he is sexually attracted to his own daughter while she sits next to him. In all of these cases there is absolutely no shame - indeed there are hints of pride. There will never be a denial. All you get is a “so what”?
So Australia please don't be surprised or expect any shame whatsoever when Trump takes as much of that sweet sub moolah as he can get and then blames voluntary Australian donations to US shipbuilders for being insufficient to move the production needle. He will then excoriate Canberra that this was the worst deal made in history by the worst President in history and as such is null and void as far as he is concerned. He will then sniff and fling his head back and cross his arms.
This is not speculation - it's underway
The Trump administration has just soft-announced cancellation of the Sub pillar of AUKUS. Here's how they did it.
Australia has already provided more than $US3 billion ($4.5 billion) to help US shipbuilding. Overall, the AUKUS deal is expected to cost $368b.
Legislation passed by Congress last year requires the US president to certify that the transfer of submarines “will not degrade the United States’ undersea capabilities” and is conditional on the US “making sufficient submarine production and maintenance investments” to meet its own needs.
In his confirmation hearing Eldridge Colby, the incoming head of policy at the Pentagon, a staunch critic of AUKUS, set himself up to gently drop Australia: "So if we can produce the attack submarines in sufficient number and sufficient speed, then great. But if we can’t, [supplying Australia] becomes a very difficult problem".
Oh dear!
A week later data obtained by Project on Government Oversight (POGO), famous for getting the real numbers, just handed Colby the knife.
"China now has the capability to build 200 times more ship tonnage than the U.S., Navy intelligence claims. While Beijing’s military power is too often exaggerated, the sorry state of U.S. shipbuilding cannot be. The Navy has taken delivery of only four of the 11 Virginia-class attack subs it was supposed to get between 2019 and 2023, and only seven of 15 DDG-51 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers."
Colby would have known those numbers at the time of his confirmation.
Australia is a big island in a sea of trouble. It is now all but guaranteed to be subless at the most unstable and dangerous time in its history.
Australia faces an extreme national security crisis. Seemingly out of the blue, three freight trains are heading for a collision.
America is dumping traditional allies and showing unwavering commitment to former enemies.
China is escalating its already inflated bellicosity with bold military actions in the region.
Australia's current sub force is aging out and its dependence on America has just been shown to have been a critical miscalculation.
Yet many Australians have convinced themselves all is fine because America First officials have told them all is fine. Did they not bother to watch all the America First confirmation hearings where candidates promised not to do all the bad things they have been saying for years they will do when they take office. Sure enough, as soon as they were confirmed they started doing all those things, including attacking the constitution and dismantling the departments they were sent to administer.
Australia - please note - these people are habitual liars. Have you paid any attention at all over the past decade?
A very sensible coalition frontbencher, James Paterson, was quoted on American reliability and commitment to the submarines:
"Meeting with most [though not all - did he meet Colby?] America First people, in the Republican foreign policy spectrum [unless they are at the very top they are worthless], they clearly said to me that… [implies they say other things to other people] there is no retreat for America from the Pacific and we shouldn't expect [expectations and reality can be at variance] that from this administration or any other”.
That's got more holes than Swiss cheese. Paterson knows it. That's why he's hedging. Note the America First people did not say they would put Australia First…. They did not commit to anything at all. They implied .. because they knew full well how this is going to end.
One wonders if the Australians have any real idea of who they are dealing with. America First is occupied by people who will turn on a dime against any friend for any foe.
Consider the oft quoted Trump whisperer Senator Lindsey Graham.
Feb. 14 Flip-flop Graham heaped praise on President Zelinsky on :
"You're the ally I've been hoping for all my life. Not one American has died defending Ukraine."
Feb. 28 Just a week later, he barked:
"I don't know if we can ever do business with Zelensky again. I think most Americans saw a guy that they would not wanna go in business with."
It is the equivalent of Trump saying in his little boy lost voice at Helsinki
"President Putin says it's not Russia. I don't see any reason why it would be”
Australian Senator James Patterson is clearly a smart guy. I would wager he has never had to deal with a Lindsey Graham in his entire life. America First is filled with Lindsey's. You can’t trust anything they say. If you are giving them money for nothing, do you think they will put their hand on your arm and say… “no please don't, I can't in good faith take this money because I know we have no plans to deliver”?
Australia needs to wake up to who they are dealing with.
A recent article in the Sydney Morning Herald is emblematic of this learned helplessness. It dismisses warnings from 2 former Prime Ministers and various strategic analysts who warn about American unreliability, and like Patterson, says to just trust what they have been told at face value by America First.
“But when this masthead recently spoke to an array of experts about how Trump might approach AUKUS, the vast majority said they believed it would survive, based on the evidence at hand.”
Oh so that's fine then. No analysis of related rhetoric or contradictory conduct. No consideration of radical policy reversals. Just in essence “trust the plan” - the conspiracy theory thought terminating cliche.
Naive much?
Too much naive trust in America First and really no clue about the character and playbook operated by Trump and his regime. They have not caught up with reality. But reality will catch up with them. It's going to be the fall of Singapore all over again.
Conclusion
Moscow could tactically nuke Kiev tonight and Trump would likely congratulate Putin for his strategic genius. Beijing can invade Taiwan safe in the knowledge Trump will not send the 7th fleet.
American sovericide has utterly changed the balance of power and with it, the global order. Washington has switched sides. It may criticise the other autocracies from time to time but that is just spin. Soon enough ,America will no longer be able to hide the fact it has become an autocracy and has soft-joined the Axis. Putin and Xi do not have to be strategic masterminds to bring Trump firmly into their club. They just have to give him a flashy special episode of his new reality TV show ‘The American Dictator’. The ratings will be off the charts.
The world is entering into a neo-feudal order characterized by neo-anarchy, Machtpolitik, autocracy, mercantilism and nuclear proliferation, accident, and use. The balance of power has been broken and is imbalanced toward the forces driving the chaos and danger. For the first time in history, America is now on the other side of all the values it was established to defend. Violence already felt in Europe will inevitably spread to Asia because the obstacle to war has been removed. The remaining democracies will struggle without American support. A nuclear breakout is inevitable. Of all the options, it is the only one that can achieve sufficiency against the mass the Chinese can bring to bear. Buying scores of new ships, subs, planes, and missiles will take far too long and will not be able to come close to parity with the PLA.
With proliferation comes a higher chance of accident and miscalculation. With the spread of autocracy to America, the risk of cataclysmic stupidity has increased. The timing is remarkable. On the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII the American people have proven they have learned absolutely nothing. They have set the world on a collision course with the same themes of that history - from trade wars, to a depression, to a major global conflict. Trump is hell bent on recreating a Smoot-Hawley world to precede a new greater East Asia co-prosperity sphere. The global hybrid war this author has written about for years crossed the threshold into a shooting war in Europe in 2014. Russia was on the ropes only to be saved by America. Now it is Asia's turn.
Update - Hegseth’s undiplomatic treatment of Marles reveals a chaotic, ungenerous ally - Sydney Morning Herald 28 AUG 2025
If you are surprised, you have not been reading Thirdoffset.
Hybrid warfare is political, economic and societal coercion hidden behind the veil of propaganda, conducted under a threshold that would justify the opponent using military force in retaliation. In this case it has started with trade war and is continued via constant propaganda bombardment about becoming the 51st state. This strategy insults and marginalizes sovereignty, national culture and identity, to make way for seizure of territory. Because America invading Canada is so surreal, it's automatically dismissed as humor. Few stop for a minute to see this for what it actually is - a head of state making threats against an ally and neighbor. Threats already acted on (trade war) and escalation thresholds already set to be broken justifying open combat.
This destruction is not being imposed from outside by war or inside by revolution. In 2024 America was on top of the world. There was no fervor to self destruct. Even extremists at least told themselves they wanted to act within the parameters of the constitution and world order.
It is unclear if France will extend deterrence to Canada to protect it from the US.
Right leaning media subscriptions number 400m in aggregate. Left leaning 60m. “Even with that imbalance, that huge head start, the election was still so close,” said Angelo Carusone, president of Media Matters for America.
Two very good books on this issue include Singer, P.W., & Brooking, E.T. (2018). Like War: The Weaponization of Social Media. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. Mindfck: Cambridge Analytica and the Plot to Break America by Christopher Wylie and Andrew B. Ross, published by Random House, October 8, 2019.
Trump is famous for shit-posting literally thousands of people. In daily barrages of up to 35 tweets a day, Trump attacked someone or something more than 50% of the time.
[Source How Trump Reshaped the Presidency in 11,000 Tweets, NYT, 2019]
In decades of publicly mocking, insulting, and ridiculing people - clinical evidence of very disturbing psychological defects - he has never said anything critical of the Russian dictator. Even when Putin launched wars, was caught multiple times spying on America, and caught paying the Taliban for scalps of American servicemen and women, Trump never once breathed a word of criticism.
Trump has occasionally praised people. One or two times seems to be the maximum. Often he returns to criticism when the target has disappointed him in some way. In a curious side note, he has rarely praised his own children, unless they were testifying for him in legal cases where his praise was designed to bolster his cause. The exception is Ivanka. However, most of the times he praised her it was in connection to comments he wanted to bed her.
Curiously, Vladimir Putin is the only person Donald Trump has praised more than twice. In fact, he has praised the dictator more than 31 times. For decades he has been nothing but full of praise for the Russian dictator. A Substack author has produced a comprehensive and lamentable catalogue of Trump's Putin adoration since the 1980s.
Only the most obtuse observer could not help but see whose side Trump has been on over the years. In trying to explain these links, some have accused Trump of being a Russian asset code name “Krasnov”. Others have suggested Trump is fearful of kompromat - with rumors of a tape with Trump engaged in golden showers with hookers on a bed used by Obama in Moscow. The thing is, there are films of Trump dancing and palling around with the world's most notorious peadophile, Jeffery Epstein and his ‘groomer’-obsessed supporters do not care. This undermines the kompromat angle even if it exists.
Trump had a childlike fascination with dictators long before he was saved by ‘providence’ from dying in prison. The only book he is known to have read was of Hitler’s speeches. Family businesses cultivate dictatorial leadership styles in those so inclined. With no boards, shareholders or markets to answer to, the CEO of a family business has God-like powers over their employees and family. His father was a documented tyrant before succumbing to dementia.
In the re-election campaign, Trump famously admitted he would be a dictator. In his usual 'boundary-pushing trial balloon as deniable joke' way, he has admitted he will be a dictator for life. Even when his propaganda side kick, Sean Hannity, tried to downplay the story Trump doubled down. ‘You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?’ I said: ‘No, no, no, other than day one”
Being president is the only guarantee of avoiding jail. Already the lawlessness of the T2 regime makes staying in office until he dies a necessity. On the campaign trail, Trump told Christians voters that they “won’t have to vote anymore” if he were reelected. He has made a series of related comments including “It will be the greatest honor of my life to serve not once, but twice or three times or four times.” It is no accident that his slavish congressional lackeys are introducing motions to permit him multiple terms.
Trump's praise for dictatorial power and the subconscious signally in his interest in it is well documented. Suffice to note a few examples here.
He has a burning ambition to be feared/adored by “his people” just like his heroes Vladimir, Xi and Kim. Lavishing Kim with praise Trump said “He speaks and his people sit up at attention,” the President added. “I want my people to do the same.”
‘'President Xi, who is a strong man, I call him King, he said, ‘But I am not King, I am president.’ I said, ‘No, you’re president for life and therefore, you’re King.’ He said, ‘Huh. Huh.’ He liked that.” (April 2, 2019)
None of this is normal in healthy people and especially not those seeking the oval office. Susan Miller, the former head of counterintelligence at the C.I.A., who led the agency’s 2017 intelligence assessment on Russian election interference, said in an interview that she thinks Trump’s affinity for the Russian president boils down to “autocrat envy”— that he covets the power Mr. Putin has to make decisions in Russia without any constraints. “Trump likes Putin because Putin has control over his country,” she said. “And Trump wants control over his country.”
See
"New data show the failures of Donald Trump's China trade strategy". The Economist. February 10, 2021. Archived from the original on May 13, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
"How China Won Trump's Trade War and Got Americans to Foot the Bill". Bloomberg. January 11, 2021. Archived from the original on June 15, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
Hass, Ryan (August 7, 2020). "More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America". Brookings Institution. Archived from the original on August 15, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
Zumbrun, Josh; Davis, Bob (October 25, 2020). "China Trade War Didn't Boost U.S. Manufacturing Might". The Wall Street Journal. Archived from the original on January 9, 2021. Retrieved October 25, 2020.
Lester, Simon (January 25, 2021). "Why Did Donald Trump's Trade War on China Fail?". Cato Institute. Archived from the original on June 10, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
Disis, Jill (October 25, 2020). "Analysis: Trump promised to win the trade war with China. He failed". CNN. Archived from the original on October 25, 2020. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
Elegant, Naomi (February 8, 2021). "The centerpiece of Trump's trade deal with China 'failed spectacularly'". Fortune. Archived from the original on May 8, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
White, Martha (January 20, 2021). "Trump's economic legacy: Trade wars, tariffs and tax breaks". NBC News. Archived from the original on April 5, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
Boehm, Eric (January 19, 2021). "Trump Promised a 'Good and Easy To Win' Trade War, Then Lost It". Reason. Archived from the original on June 17, 2021. Retrieved June 12, 2021.
For example, the deterrent to surprise in Siberia, Russian far east land forces, have been shipped West only to disappear into the maw of the meat grinder. The only defenses left protecting Russia's underpopulated, resource-rich frontier with China, are a few scattered strategic rocket forces with their TELs (transporter, erector launcher). Transmigration, investment and infrastructure development in this region is slowly turning it Chinese anyway. Something that alarms Moscow but is a burden it has to carry for now. China can bide its time.
This has been touted as a plan for some time. It would be a death blow. As the dollar falls, America's crippling debt would skyrocket. The country would be bankrupted overnight resulting in civil war. Trump is alive to this threat because he added $8.4T to the national debt in T1 and plans to add even more in T2. He warned the BRICs countries “We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.” This is an addict warning his dealer of severe consequences if supply of the good stuff is cut off.
Trump could address this vulnerability by creating a budget surplus but instead he intends to offer even more tax cuts to billionaires that will balloon the debt still further. It should be noted that driving the economy into recession for no reason is also unlikely to grow revenues.
Before the collapse of the markets triggered by Trump, the “new budget forecasts [for 2025] predicted that the United States will record a $1.9 trillion budget deficit this fiscal year and that annual deficits over the next decade will total $21.1 trillion. That will be piled on to a national debt that currently exceeds $36 trillion. By 2035, the debt as a share of the U.S. economy will rise to 118 percent, the largest in history. The debt is currently 100 percent of gross domestic product.”
This is original - put in block quotes for effect.
During the Cold War, two antithetical ways to order the world, communism and democracy, coexisted because they were in a nuclear tipped equilibrium. The rules based order established by America after WWII was tolerant and inclusive toward the USSR.
Anarchy here is used in the International Relations sense of lacking a hegemon or agreed international institutions facilitating activities in the absence of an international sovereign.
Marked by decentralization, fragmentation, inequality and privatization.
That what they are seeing, but disbelieving, is in fact taking place. It can't be explained away as eccentricities of a television performer out of their depth, or misled by the last person with whom they spoke. It's much more serious and deeply rooted than that deliberately misleading smoke screen pouring out of the propaganda machine.
For example, you would not want to be Australia right now. They have gone all-in on Biden's sub deal: AUKUS. They will certainly never get the subs due to low production rates and US need, but not before they pay handsomely. When America cuts them loose what are they going to do about it?
The threat against our neighbor to the North is real. Yet again, people cannot see this guy for who he is. Britain extending its deterrent to cover Canada would be a huge and much needed wake up call to America's dictator. Of course the British would not want to make gramps upset but here's the thing about that - inevitably he will get upset at you over something. Might as well make it count and give you the upper hand. Lead don't follow.
That bizarre example arose from the administration thinking its disastrous diplomacy was on par with the Carter peace accords and was deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. A consistent theme that has reared its ugly head again over Ukraine. It is so disconnected from reality it alone is proof of how broken the people are engaged in these maneuvers.
With the vitally important proviso any change is peaceful and desired by the islanders. Does anyone really think Trump will care about this level of nuance?
Coral Bell, Dependent Ally: A Study in Australian Foreign Policy, 1993, Allen and Unwin, Sydney.
This author rather cheekily wrote that sentence down in a high school history essay in answer to the question “why did Australia go to war in 1939”. A frustrated history teacher learned to be careful how he phrased his questions in future. Easiest A of all time!
Navies are used to protect sea lanes for commerce. As China is Australia's top trading partner it is vital to stop them from attacking bilateral trade. https://youtu.be/sgspkxfkS4k?si=Jd-M4UK0QqQIKKmu
Sovericide. Absolutely correct. This was written in April. Subsequent events show our allies in Asia have a lot to worry about.
There is the matter that Trump may die soon because of poor health. Any ally that trusts the US after breaking the Budapest Memorandum is daft and negligent. Europe has been slow on the uptake. Putin’s double got much needed recognition in Alaska.
China may seek to incorporate Taiwan without war. I wonder why they patiently wait as T2 spews chaos.
Thank you for this analysis.